The resignation of the mayor of Moscow Yuri Luzhkov on Tuesday September 28 immediately reflected in the market. That has already managed to occur, the forecast impact of the resignation of Yuri Luzhkov on real estate, as well as his wishes for the new town planner, told the members and experts of the Moscow Business Club, the leading players of the real estate market. Anna Markin, General Director of Moscow Business Club, noted that most real estate players have decided to remain neutral and did not comment on the resignation of the mayor influence on the market. "I note that my opinion is not afraid to make the most daring, able to respond flexibly and rapidly to changes in our market, the company," added Ms. Markin. The article was attended by executives: «Capital group», «NDV-property», «Penny Lane Realty», «Relight Invest" MC "Alur", "Corporation S. Holding», «Vesco Consulting» Indicators and Analysis Center Real Estate Market. Total revision of the Moscow buildings may suspend construction of newspaper "Kommersant" reported that the UPC and the Russian Interior Ministry has already conducted several pre-investigation checks on the facts of illegal activities, Yuri Luzhkov and his wife, the head of "Inteko" Yelena Baturina. The opposition movement "Left Front" in connection with the resignation of the mayor sent to the Prosecutor General and the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation requires an all-out test of the Moscow buildings. In identifying the violations require immediate opozitsionnery stop construction. Falling shares of construction companies have already registered shares drop several real estate companies, as shares of PIK Group fell for a day at 3%, while shares of "Open Investments" by 2%. In general, experts of the Moscow Business Club suggest that Luzhkov's resignation will affect share prices of construction companies, close to the Moscow Government and the relevant projects in the capital. Change, we wait for changes made These are the projections of the representatives of the housing business, answering the question: "What changes will result in dismissal of the real estate market mayor? '" We can not say that the change of mayor did not affect the real estate market. Affected, and how, especially in the part which concerns the distribution of power and opportunities of his players. But on the final cost of housing does not affect "- says Oleg Repchenko, head of the analytical center" Indicators of housing market »IRN. "Specifically, the decree of the President has shown how far gone the mutual misunderstanding. Moreover, such a position shows how hard and concrete may be Mr President. At the same time and in a surprise decision not popreknesh Medvedev - he warned, but we apparently did not believe the position of waiting for verbalization Premiere, focused on the behavior of the Mayor, "- said Giorgi Dzagurov, CEO, Penny Lane Realty. Mr. Dzagurov identified the following consequences of the resignation of the mayor. "Firstly, the rustling would be for someone is a period of destruction of documents and evidence for the other - the struggle for its proximity to the future leader of the body, for all kinds of Raiders - a good chance to try to earn extra money. Second, the potential for reducing the cost of building stock / real estate companies active in the capital there is, especially evident near the Moscow Government. Also, I am sure that such international exhibitions as "Eksporeal" (beginning of October in Munich) and even "MAPIK" (late autumn) were missing many of the previously planned trip to Moscow Mayor's representatives as well as developers. Khrustalev Alexander, CEO of market leader in new construction, "NDV-property" confident that the resignation of Yuri Luzhkov can not affect the real estate market situation and development in Moscow. These changes will, in the first place, the further strategy of major players in real estate development market. "It should be noted that under the leadership of Luzhkov's team has developed, with many highly qualified professionals. Our city - a sophisticated economy, with the objects of culture, infrastructure, engineering and so on. So if you change the mayor should not expect too rapid change - a new leader must enter into a course of current problems ", - the expert adds. Oleg Pronin, Director General of "Relight Invest" is of the opinion that the significant changes that significantly alter the current market trends in the short term will not be. "To create a new management team takes time, Luzhkov is now temporarily replaces Resin, First Deputy Mayor in the Moscow government, therefore, in essence, a change of power has not yet taken place. In addition, the General Plan of Moscow Development up to 2025, which has already registered the main directions of urban development of the capital, has already been approved. " Alexei Averyanov, CEO of Vesco Consulting notes that it will be interesting to see what will happen to projects that are currently under negotiation and investment is very important when the administrative resource, since it is no secret that in this process, there is enormous corruption component. "You can assume that many developers will be forced to freeze projects that are not completed and approval is not obtained approvals for construction. I wonder what will happen to these projects. In addition, the fate of the interesting small companies, which have one or two of the project. These players are strongly tied to the administrative resource, and can not be ruled collapse of these companies under the circumstances "- he said. The new alignment of forces developers. The fate of eyes INTECO construction business. Different opinions provoked the question: "Will the disposition of real estate companies (distribution of power and capabilities), and what?". Here are some comments we received. "The consequences of the resignation of Yuri Luzhkov, to the real estate market are in the sphere of redistribution of windfall profits, but not in the change in prices for consumers", - says Oleg Repchenko, Head of Research Center IRN. Thus, the expert can be expected to strengthen capacities of firms, initially worked closely with the federal government (of course, the new mayor, or a tandem of Mayor and chairman of the government appointees to be the Kremlin). "Those who previously collaborated with the Ministry of Defence (for military housing), the Interior Ministry, with customs, etc., will benefit. But to carry the tightly packed with portfolios on Tverskaya Street, 13, or on Novy Arbat, 36, - to lose "- Oleg Repchenko stresses. Arguing about the team, the analyst believes that the team may suffer Luzhkov. "Since the founding of the Investigative Committee was instituted 24 criminal cases against officials of the government, prefectural and district councils of Moscow", - noted the official representative of the Investigation Committee Vladimir Markin, quoted by "Interfax". Nine criminal cases brought against government officials in Moscow. In three of them have already completed the preliminary investigation, he said. "Alexander Ryabinin has resigned, though his personal belonging to the internal" team Luzhkov "has been observed. Vladimir Resin, gave myself a month on the performance of duty, then, in his opinion, are recommendations from the federal government for the candidacy of the new mayor of the Moscow City Duma (which must approve the appointment), "- Oleg Repchenko concludes. "The attitudes of real estate companies on the market today are determined primarily by solvency of companies, namely, literacy strategies, quality of facilities and the ability to fulfill its obligations to customers and partners", - commented the representatives of Capital Group. "Company" Inteko "will have to move - the market can leave new investors, and maybe even appear fair tenders. If the new leadership refuses to conduct fictitious trades, subject to the legislation on competition, finally, will earn in Moscow ", - said Alexander Shepel, president of S-Holding. According to Oleg Pronin, Director General of "Relight Invest", major changes can be expected. "Perhaps some companies will be less interesting sites for construction", - he said. George Dzagurov, CEO, Penny Lane Realty sure that the disposition to change. "Among those who rest on their laurels solely due to violating Relations today, may not be able to work in a competitive environment. The role of Inteko, a company with which the quarrel is equivalent to the output of construction projects in the capital, to change, "- says Mr. Dzagurov. With the resignation of Luzhkov's situation may change. "Inteko" strong company, but its business is likely, it is more difficult times, - says Mikhail Urinson, managing director of the Criminal Code "Alur". Alexei Averyanov, CEO of Vesco Consulting supports the view of Mr. Dzagurova, but notes that the disposition of real estate companies will change slowly. "Since many projects have been launched - passed all approvals and the related approvals, so the administrative resources are no longer important. Changes can be expected in the future 2-3 years. Perhaps the emergence of new major players. Anything you can predict when will the new cabinet ", - he said. Real estate prices: The Rise, fall, or a couple of days in the press were made directly opposite each other opinions from lower prices and a release of apartments to raise prices and reduce the volume of commissioned housing. What are we waiting for take-off, falling or stagnant real estate prices? - Say the top executives of real estate market. George Dzagurov, CEO, Penny Lane Realty, says that "a direct impact on the market functionary have not, however, inhibited by six months in the construction processes definitely lead to a reduction in newly square meters, which can eventually lead to shortages and increased in prices. However, if we - Russians - all understand and are willing to tolerate, tightening straps, many Western partners such delinquency, new costs and risks will be unpleasantly surprised, pointing out to new risks of doing business in Russia, definitely ponder on other geographic coordinates applications of their own investments. We do not need. " "I think that home prices could only change in the direction of increase, although by and large the resignation of the mayor on the price level does not affect" - believes Mikhail Urinson, managing director of the Criminal Code "Alur" Oleg Pronin, Director General of "Relight Invest" assumes that the market will develop its own laws and the price level in the first place affect supply and demand. "The market volume of primary residence in Moscow offer is not high and has declined steadily. In particular, for the year, the number of new buildings for sale decreased by 40.1% to 156 addresses. The reduction in supply has been observed for more than a year, and it is this fact and caused significant price increases in 2005-2006. In this case affected the changes in building codes turn of 2005-2006 - a new Town Planning Code, 214-FL, and others that have inhibited the release of new objects for sale. Reducing the volume of supply also caused a ban point of construction in 2007. Then about 60 promising projects have disappeared under the cut. Therefore, the resignation of Luzhkov will not cause price reductions or emission of apartments on the market. Proposal of new buildings is quite limited, and new projects are developed over several years. So even if the number of auctions for new construction sites, which in Moscow is not very much, after the resignation of the mayor to increase, new buildings will go on sale not earlier than one year, sometimes two. That is, growth in new buildings in the current year is not expected. " "The segment is regulated by the Moscow real estate market instruments, so wrong to expect in the short term fall in prices or mass ejection apartments on the market only in connection with the armchair change." This is the position of Capital Group. "Wait a sharp decline in housing prices in Moscow and the increase in supply in the market following the resignation of Mr. Luzhkov is not necessary. Could increase the risk for buyers to zero phase by increasing the timing of approvals. But this is a lengthy process, so that rapid changes are not going to happen, "- says Alexander Shepel, president of S-Holding. According to Alexei Averyanov, CEO of Vesco Consulting «as much as allowed to build Luzhkov and the city, and commercial real estate - it is quite large amounts of supply, so the mass ejection should not be expected. As such, lower prices also are expected. Even in crisis, we observed no release of apartments at a discount. There were great deals, but they were limited in number, and they quickly left the market. Many questions remain about the dense development in Moscow, so it is likely to reduce the volume of construction in the city and increase them in the Moscow region. " What is waiting for the new mayor real estate market? The Moscow Business Club are just some suggestions for a new mayor in town planning, management made real estate and real estate companies. "Maximum encourage investors, developers and builders to actively building. Only the creation of new square feet can run on lower prices, to tackle age-old gap "- such wishes expressed Dzagurov George, CEO of Penny Lane Realty Alexander Shepel, president of S-Holding proposes to revise controversial master plan for the Moscow Arbitration Court in the regime, particularly in respect of those land investors and owners, in particular industries, who bought property to build something, and ended up with "with nothing." This land was unsuitable for that to which for many years preparing for. This promotes the formation of the market for new major projects. "And who is convinced that the future mayor, and even appointed by the federal government, will be urban planner? Rather, a plunge in the current business (such as the heating season), if by its nature an executive, or hits to the policy, if an adventurer by nature. But find a man who could combine business savvy and political will is not easy "- says Oleg Repchenko, head of research portal IRN. "In any case, the legacy of the new mayor got rich, though not easy. He will be responsible for completion of the "Moscow-City", Fourth Ring Road and a lot of other projects. Not to mention the Sochi and other regions. There is, to exert force, but force must be infinite. So it remains only to wish good luck "- added Mr. Repchenko. "Yuri Mikhailovich, of course, did much for the city. I have no doubt that his successor will be as balanced and constructive approach. Of course, the city has unsolved problems. First of all, the problems of transport infrastructure. I believe that the solution of these problems will become the new mayor of priority. The same market players expect long acceleration processes of coordination developer documentation. This will help bring to market new volumes of square meters in a relatively short period of time. However, it is unlikely to affect the price situation in the market of new Moscow - the city is limited land resources, and its unique capital status to Moscow makes attractive to many people, "- his opinion Khrustalev Alexander, CEO, the market leader in new construction" NDV-property " . "I hope the new mayor decides the transport problem in Moscow and systematizes the procedure for obtaining building land on an equal footing" - returned to the transportation problem Urinson Michael, Managing Director of the Criminal Code "Alur" "In the first place - it wishes to increase the volume of investments in infrastructure sector: roads, parking, public transport, "- concludes Alexei Averyanov, CEO of Vesco Consulting.
No comments:
Post a Comment