The situation on the Moscow real estate market: results of October

The index value of the property $ 1805/kv. m - 0.0% index of price expectations - 0.09% per month - 0.2% Profitability index of housing - 2.07 to Wed returns on bank deposits -1.3 mb / d in absence of a rise in prices in the capital market of real estate in the most active period of the autumn season remember a few. This situation is vaguely reminiscent of the state of the market in 1998-99, already half-forgotten order, as well as earlier in the mid-nineties. However, the instability of the real estate market in those days seems to be quite ambiguous understandable, while the current stagnation is often surprising. Against the backdrop of evident increased standard of living (at least in Moscow), an all-time high oil prices and the relative political and economic stability in the country. However, in spite of all these factors, which, apparently, had facilitate the resumption of rising prices fall, nothing like this happens. Housing costs index for October remained virtually unchanged at $ 1805 per square meter. m. While for some types of housing or new construction homes, prices may vary slightly both up and down, depending on local market conditions, general market price level remains unchanged. On the other hand, the absence of a new round of price increases fall well balanced and there was no significant reduction in market prices. Given that the slowdown in housing prices in Moscow and the onset of market stagnation have begun to appear in May and June, enough time has passed to a downward trend in prices has had time to get its development provided there for the necessary economic prerequisites. Although the real estate market characterized by substantial inertia in the same 1998 price adjustment to new construction began in October, that is, two months after a crisis. In other words, in order to begin to fall in the capital's property market has been almost six months. The absence of any noticeable downward trend in prices until the end of October, says that the essential prerequisites for this yet. Simply put, if they existed, then the prices have already begun to fall. There are prerequisites to stop excessively rapid rise in prices for Moscow real estate, observed the last two years, according to experts about twice the natural and economically sound growth. The real threat to the capital's property market crash could occur only after a year - to middle - end of 2005, had abnormally high rates of growth in real estate prices have remained all this time. Lack of market movements both up and down allows you to judge that, although the last two years the current level of prices, and went forward a little in relation to economic levels, but the gap has arisen was small. And it is partly offset by sinking prices for the last six months. As a result, the current price level reflects a balance between supply and demand, not creating the preconditions for the emergence of sharp trend in the price level or down or up. The level of housing prices will continue until the New Year, and the emergence of new trends can be expected until next year.