"Bubble" on the Russian real estate market collapsed over 2 years ago, at the beginning of the crisis, and until, following the international experience, is just beginning to recover. However, the pace of this trend in our country is far behind other civilized countries, most of which prices are already very close to the values of the summer of 2008. The problem of restoring the Russian real estate market and, above all, the possibility of a new rise in prices worries absolute majority of Russians, 68% in one way or another are going to improve in the next 2-3 years, their living conditions. Analysts estimate that the Savings Bank, in the near future, the housing market will recover, but "very slowly". The report highlights the bank's analysts that Russia as a whole before the end of 2010 and next year will be continued stagnation in prices adjusted for inflation. In nominal terms, a slight increase in price will be fixed in 2011 (6%). "In the" soft "figures forecast" hidden "desire to see the housing market is more stable and accessible than it really is" in Moscow before the end of 2010 and 2011 house prices would grow at a slower pace than earlier this year . Analysts estimate that the Savings Bank, in the periods indicated "increase the ruble cost of housing in the capital," overtaking "inflation of 4-5%." In 2011, the expected similar dynamics. "In these figures, there is some innuendo and inaccurate - says LOOK director of consulting the Bureau of informational support investment Andrey Shapovalov. - "Overtaking" of 4-5% inflation rate is estimated very differently by the Government and independent experts. The first count of 8-9% per year, the second - by 14-16%. In the first case, prices should grow by 12-14% in the second - by 18-21%. Then it is not clear from the Savings Bank experts are taking the national average of 6%. This is the same "average temperature in the hospital" that does not mean absolutely nothing. " In Russia as a whole the average price per square meter by the end of this year, a bit less than 50 thousand rubles, in Moscow - in the area of 145 thousand, experts say the Savings Bank. The following year, nationwide average rate will be over 50 thousand rubles, and, as analysts predict the bank by the end of the year is not much exceed this level. But Moscow square meter bar will win 160 thousand rubles (roughly the second quarter), but by the end of the year significant increase trend growth in prices is expected. "Forecasts do a thankless thing, and the Russian economy is largely dependent on energy prices on world markets and exchange rates in order to build more or less accurate plans, - the head of analytical department of the company Globus Consulting Dmitry Gorokhov. - Besides the calculation of inflation is still on the indicators that are long and hopelessly out of date, such as evaluation of the consumer basket, giving the funny things from the arsenal of the 60s and the consumption needs of the Soviet time. In the "soft" figures are likely to simply "hidden" desire to see the housing market is more stable and accessible than it actually is. " In this regard, portal Finam stressed that the government has pledged to prevent the surge in house prices and inflation of the next "bubble". "We will continue to support demand for housing, and to prevent the spike in prices and the emergence of bubbles in the market, together will form an adequate supply to provide a massive building of new land, to remove administrative barriers to the construction industry, develop the economy-housing projects," - results in portal quote Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at the Forum "Russia Calling." LOOK interviewed market specialists believe that the price of the calls do not operate in a market economy, and the only way to make housing affordable - this is more to build and introduce new lending program, in parallel reducing mortgage rates to the level of average. With regard to prices, according to the Center GdeEtotDom.RU, for the first month of autumn in the secondary market price of the Russian real estate were higher by 0.4%, while the August price increase averaged 0.1%. The pace of growth in house prices is still below the inflation rate, which in September was 0.8%. Compared with the beginning of the year house prices in rubles in Russia on average, grew by only 1.5%. At the same time, inflation has reached the end of September 6.3%. In the secondary market the average price per square meter in Moscow today is about 150 thousand rubles, and this rather low point in the block houses on the outskirts of the city. In Moscow, the growth rate the last few months correspond to the level of inflation. In September 2010, prices in the secondary market were higher by 0.8%, compared with the beginning of the year - by 5.3%. September was generally better for the market of the Moscow residential real estate over the past 3 years, according to the FC "Uralsib". "In September, in Moscow there were the highest for that month over the past three years the number of transactions in residential real estate - 6039, which is 36% more than last year. In this case the cumulative number of transactions in the third quarter of 2010 decreased by 19% compared to second quarter of 2010, but increased by 47% compared to third quarter of 2009, "- said in a review of FC. If you take the number of transactions, it is already quite comparable with the pre-crisis levels, says the Moscow Guild of Realtors, stressing that prices remain unchanged: the average price in September rose by 0.8% against the previous month and 8% since the beginning of the year. "One of the main reasons for the increase in home prices and high volumes of transactions it is a high demand for economy class housing costs in the range of 3-4 thousand dollars per square meter. At the same time providing support to demand the restoration of the mortgage market against a background of improving the conditions of financing: rates on ruble loans now account for 11-14% per annum (compared to 18-20% in 2009), and the size of the initial payment has decreased to 10-20%, "- said in a review of FC. More conservative estimate of the cost of the Moscow "squares" Analysts offer "Real Estate Market Indicators» (IRN). According to them, the average cost of a meter in new buildings has not changed for 2-3 months past, showing a slight increase in the range 2.5%. The research center experts indicated that the average price of a meter in Moscow Ring Road to the TTC has increased from 146.1 thousand in the 2nd quarter to 149.5 thousand in Q3 of this year. The average cost of capital flats "grown up" about 0.5 million and now stands at 14.2 million rubles for 95 square meters. In other segments (regions outside Moscow and Moscow suburbs of the city) the dynamics does not exceed 1% as the average cost of a meter, and the price for an apartment. For example, in the suburbs the average distance value of the flat area of 67 meters is about the same as in the 2nd quarter of 2010 - about 3.9 million rubles. Accommodation of the same area in settlements in 30 km from Moscow will cost about 3.1 million. According to the "Indicators", a segment of the capital's buildings now stands "locomotive" of the housing market in the Moscow region - it is here marked the most significant changes the basic parameters. On the one hand, the volume of transactions, and hence the demand for apartments in Moscow, as evidenced by a small positive trend in prices, as well as reducing the number of sold buildings. At the same time near Moscow market of primary residence still is in a state of stagnation.
No comments:
Post a Comment