The top management of the country set a target to make mortgages in Russia, mass and cheap. To do so, expected to significantly reduce the interest rates on loans. In particular, the State Duma speaker Boris Gryzlov said that during 2006-2007, is scheduled to bring the rates down to levels of 6.5%. Duma faction "United Russia" believes that mortgage interest may reduce to 6%. To achieve this result most easily by subsidizing the interest on mortgage loans due to additional revenues. The Finance Ministry are skeptical about this initiative, believing that the loan rates will fall by themselves, but only when inflation is reduced. While high interest rates on mortgage loans are one of the main reasons for the slow development of mortgages in Russia. At the present time they average about 15-18% per annum in rubles, 11-13% - in foreign currency. But this so-called declared rate, effective the same (ie, real) due to various additional payments can reach up to 18-19% per annum. Take a mortgage interest that exist in Russia (usually 10-15 years) - it ruinous. In fact, the borrower will have to pay for two apartments, to get one. Of course, some attempts to reduce borrowers' payments being made. For example, with January 1, 2006 HMLA reduced rate from 14 to 12% in rubles. It is planned to continue this process further. But how realistic these plans? First of all, they depend on increasing the amount of state support for mortgage lending programs of housing. Falling interest rates still at hand is clear that the interest rate depends on several factors: the level of inflation, the cost of raising resources, credit risk, the development of regulatory frameworks, market infrastructure, etc. Therefore, when people talk about lowering interest rates we should not interpret this as a sharp depreciation of the loan at some point. This process extended in time. Over the last four or five years, for example, fixed interest in the Russian market fell from about 19-21 up to 11-13% in foreign currency, with 21-25 up to 15-18% in rubles. Inflation - this is one of the most important economic indicators, though, we should recognize the conditional: it depends not only on the actual prices, but on the calculation methods, which use those or other organizations, such as Rosstat. For 2006, the country's leadership planned inflation is not higher than 7-8.5%. In mid-February, the forecast revised and improved to 8-9%. According to forecasts of Ministry of Finance, in 2006 the inflation rate will be 10%. But by the end of March inflation has reached 4.6%, which created serious problems. It seems that the level again goes out of control government. That is, reduction of interest on mortgages below the inflation rate is in principle impossible. We would like the ladies and gentlemen, declaring the mortgage rate at 6-6.5% per annum, was named at least one argument in favor of the fact that inflation in this country will fall at least to that level. Central Bank of dumping will not allow one of the central categories of the financial market is the so-called refinancing rate determined by the Central Bank of Russia. Interest on mortgage loans are unlikely to fall below its level. In practice, the mortgage rate can be equal and 3 / 4 refinance rate, but in this case, banks that set it will have to pay additional taxes, and this, of course, nobody is going to do. In fact, in January, mortgage rates drop to 12% was literally "in the wake of" changes in the refinancing rate: 26 December 2005, the CBR has reduced it from 13 to 12%, and within days was followed by an actual decrease in mortgage rates on ruble loans AHML. The refinancing rate reflects the actual level of inflation in the country. With this in mind, analysts suggest that the mortgage will reach 6-6.5% treasured, but not in 2006-2007, but in a much more distant time. You need some way to keep inflation low at 4-5%. Theoretically, this is real, but in practice what earnings - such loans and Cheaper mortgages depends not only on the level of inflation in the country, the refinancing rate and the amount of state support, but also on the degree of quality and transparency of the documents submitted by borrowers of banks. This is important, highly relevant to the specifics of the Russian market, which is dominated by the so-called "gray" and "black" income. Providing loans for undocumented confirmed earnings, banks run a great risk. In our country, it looks like this: loans under the "gray" and "black" revenue provided under the inflated interest rates - up to 18% per annum, under the "white" has a chance to get a loan of 10-11% per year (actually, all the declared bank interest rates and conditions are associated with the formal proof of income). Followed by the West should not forget that the stakes enormous influence not only the Russian domestic but also external factors. Reduce the interest on a few points, not focusing on the situation on the world market, it is simply impossible. We illustrate this situation for example, rates of LIBOR (London InterVank Offered Rate), which is the averaged rate of interest at which banks borrow money resources from other banks in the London interbank market. Leading players in the Russian mortgage market in the international market are the large sums at a rate of LIBOR + 1,5-3%. Recently LIBOR rate remained at historically low values, ranging from 2-3%. Now she rises and at the beginning of August had already reached 5.4%. Hence, our banks money under cost about 7-8,4%. Clearly, giving them approximately at the same interest they are not profitable. If we assume that the emerging economic trends continue, the LIBOR rate at the end of 2006 can reach a level of 6.5-7%. If this happens (as, for example, in 2000), then about any reduction of interest on loans in Russia will not be out of the question - will the banks themselves borrow money at 8-10%. And if LIBOR rises to 9%, as it did in 1989? The question, as they say, is rhetorical. Utopia Mortgage If you tie the changes in mortgage interest rates to refinance the CBR, it is projected, with favorable developments by year-end rates for the ruble to fall to bar mortgage at 11%. The lower level is unlikely. Whatever it was, the refinancing rate can not decline indefinitely, therefore, mortgage rates, equal to 6-6.5%, if not utopian to look, it is too bright. In terms of the behavior of Russian inflation and LIBOR, the change in value of mortgage loans in 2006 is less optimistic: if the year-end inflation rate in the country again at 13% and LIBOR reaches a level of 6.5-7%, about any reduction of interest rates can not be would even dream of. Thus, the only real factor that can really cause a depreciation of the mortgage, government subsidies are presented, taken from the stabilization fund. But the government has not demonstrated a willingness to invest these funds in the Russian economy. While statements by senior officials that the rate on loans is about to reach the mark of 6-6.5% per annum, only inhibit the development of mortgages in the country. Those who are in principle willing to take credit for the existing conditions of today, in anticipation of the changes you soon occupy a waiting position. As a result, the huge savings that could be used to purchase on credit of their own property, go to the ineffective and futile rent.
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