MORE, LESS, MORE

Upcoming New Year holidays are traditionally be associated with a lull in the market. Experts agree that in the next two to three months the price of new housing will not change. However, a more distant perspective is hardly comforting. Topic of the future state of the market was discussed at a conference for professionals, "Analysis and prediction of real estate development, construction and mortgage lending," which was held in the exhibition-seminar "Housing Project". Despite some recovery in demand after the crisis, to rely on low-cost housing improvements are unlikely to have. New neighborhoods will grow farther and farther from the center, in order to continue to be introduced more and more cheap small apartments. And the prices are bound to go up. Quiet neighborhoods, however, analysts agree that in the next three to six months, the situation with the cost of housing will change slightly. This is due to the lack of fundamental factors that could affect the change in demand. In the middle class money to purchase houses still do not. Rich people in the improvement of living conditions in large numbers no longer needed. A mortgage, which would pump up the market with money, do not come in the near future to pre-crisis level. So the market until there are only forced transactions related to the natural demographic processes (weddings, divorces, births, etc.). At the same time, according to director of development of the construction company "Temp" Xenia Morkovkin, in the last six months residential real estate market yet there has been some recovery. "In the autumn sales increased significantly, but prices are still stable - she says - only the most liquid of individual objects developers gradually raise the price tag. A secondary market for the first time over a long period have been held auctions to raise. There were buyers who are willing to pay the entire amount at once. Of course, they have the advantage. " According to the director of marketing for "The World of Real Estate" by Ilya Loginova, the average price in the primary market in the coming months will remain at the level of 65 000 rubles per square meter. m. In this case, on the one hand, it will grow naturally on the cost of housing facilities with the increasing willingness, on the other hand, new projects, which blow out spring on the market will adjust the figures, starting with the sales prices well below market prices. "Further development will depend on what it would be for objects and how they will be. If the new proposals will not be, in the spring market feels lack of liquidity supply and prices will go up, "- said Loginov. General Director of "Petropolis" Mark Lerner said that in the next quarter, as in the past six months, prices are unlikely to change within a 1-2% per month in either direction. But he also noted a gradual recovery in demand in the mass segment housing ("economy" and "comfort") and therefore does not preclude the tendency to increase in the price of cheap apartments. More strongly on this issue in favor Deputy Director of the "new construction" real estate "Ithaca" by Jan Dolotova. In her opinion, economy class housing growth can go in later this year. The increase in prices of such properties is possible in about 10%. "Today, it is obvious that all the massive demand and is focused on small-sized housing economy class. For example, a set of "North Valley" Company "Glavstroi-Petersburg." This project fully meets the current demand, including deferred. And next year the market will have a number of similar projects. Whereas before, in 2005-2008, the structure offers a more balanced, that is 40% one-bedroom, 40% and 20% of two-three-and four-room apartments, now the one-bedroom apartments and studios for 60% and two-bedroom - 20% . And I must say, it corresponds to the maximum demand ", - says John Dolotova. "This demand pattern is characteristic of the real estate market has for a long time, and change it only in the event of significant changes in economic conditions and growth in real incomes. In the medium term, it will remain the same. Developers, of course, take into account these trends. For example, a new object of our company - "Geometry" - was formed on the basis of consumer preferences and entered the market in October. Within just a month it had booked all the studios. Thus, we believe that further significant imbalance between supply and demand will not "- agrees Mark Lerner. However, this meter Uzhimaya balance residential real estate market of St. Petersburg has developed quite a long time. Xenia Morkovkina considers it unique, and therefore - is fraught with change: "From the point of equilibrium the market is likely to be derived demand deficits. The situation in which suddenly appears cheap excess supply, it seems to me unlikely. So for the deficit is inevitably followed by rising prices. Most buyers have traditionally want to improve their living conditions, at a cost of as little as possible. In the market a lot of objects that differ in their characteristics, the choice is always there. Another question is that if you want to buy an apartment for 1.5 million, do not expect that it will be a luxury property in the finished house. " Low purchasing power of potential homeowners leads to the fact that the main trend of the market that produce experts, it is cut square footage of housing. "Offering quality accommodation comfort class is reduced. New houses are dominated by small studios and one bedroom apartments. Today, customers are demanding rent from 1.5 million to 2.2 million. Developers seek to meet this demand, minimizing the area to the limit. There are already two-bedroom apartments of 34 square meters. a meter. Soon we come to the practice of the European market, where one-bedroom apartment at 45 meters is very large and trudnoprodavaemoy ", - says Ilya Loginov. Sergei Bobashev more pessimistic: "While the offer studios on 23 meters - it is exotic. But it's very sad, such a fully fledged apartment can not be named. Some return to Khrushchev of the 21st century. And it's not the limit - the demand for these apartments is great. If it goes any further, I do not rule out that wild-type offers "new communal." Predmestny coloring Another trend contributing to lower prices for housing - is growing in breadth of the city. The new quarters have come and for the administrative boundaries of St. Petersburg. "The demand is increasingly shifting to the suburbs because of obvious reasons. No one is afraid of any Shushary Parnassus Devyatkino, Murino, Kudrovo. There will be new neighborhoods with good infrastructure and transport access, as well as the price is considerably lower than similar proposals in the inhabited areas, the choice is clear ", - says Ilya Loginov. More reserved about the prospects of the city suburbs Xenia Morkovkina "integrated development projects outside the city limits at the first stage proved quite successful, but to say that for future similar projects, I have not yet become - must await the completion of several queues before We are fully aware of the specifics of these projects. " In fact, the creation of sound energy, transport and social infrastructure - an essential part of the construction of new quarters. A final cost of housing developers, these costs clearly diminish. According to Ilya Loginova, some optimism can inspire the gradual development of the mortgage. Although the houses are readily below 70% it is still great difficulties, and barter schemes are used extensively in the early stages of construction, as noted by Loginov, in some companies, the share of mortgage deals over 40% of sales. "While this is unfortunately the exception. On average, the market share of mortgage transactions does not exceed 15%. But, I think the situation will improve, "- he said. Gradually reduced and the practice of participatory construction. "Growth offers a high degree of readiness is quite possible," - says John Dolotova. - "Even now, many developers are offering ready-made products for customers with minimal risks."