Banks will be forced to take a mortgage

Representatives of the banking community today say: two or three years, mortgage rates could fall to 7-8% from the current 11-12% in rubles. However, with the condition that inflation will listen to the government and reduced to 4-6%. That is, not much is not enough - almost twice as compared to my present figure. If this does not happen, then you should not expect a decrease in rates or a sharp increase in the proportion of mortgage loans in loan portfolios of banks: credit at a loss commercial structures are not collected. Even for a national program providing the population with affordable housing. Putting the question can hardly be arranged. President Vladimir Putin shares this view when he recently also said that while inflation was 4-6% of residential mortgage loans will be available to millions of people. Including those who do not have the ability to make monthly loan repayments in 1000-2000 dollars - that is such an annuity amount, according to experts, is the middle of Moscow. In the regions, for obvious reasons, this amount is lower, but there it becomes a huge burden on family budgets, "eating" from 40% to 60% of monthly income the borrower (or his family). One gets the impression that there is old and has already become a familiar debate: Who should take the first step to a mortgage has earned - the banks or the government. The head of the Association of Russian Banks Garegin Tosunyan, talking about lowering mortgage rates, cites the example of China where, he said, housing loans for 25 years issued only at 6% per annum. But this is only possible because there exists in this country a huge state support. In Russia, until it is limited to calling the authorities on banks to work more actively on the market. First of all these appeals were addressed to the state-owned banks in the face of Sberbank and Vneshtorgbank (and quasi - on behalf of the Bank of Moscow). Now came the turn of the commercial banks - both metropolitan and regional, especially since the latter will play a major role in the mortgage field. Unless, of course, they will be able to refinance its loans, while that in the absence of uniform standards do not always easy. But the main thing today - the position of large banks at the federal level. The other day, "enlisted in the volunteers' and Alfa-Bank, which had previously specialized in consumer and business lending. Its president Petr Aven during his meeting with Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin took a kind of socialist commitment, promising that the mortgage in two or three years will grow at the same rate as consumer credit - 100% per year. Of course, this growth will be achieved not only by the Alfa-Bank, but this leader and consumer lending will contribute to the common cause and to do business, which he had previously avoided. Because he wanted to take into account the mistakes of others and gain experience, explain the representatives of the bank. Because preferred to engage in short-term lending of individuals - business more profitable and easier, especially when you consider the "hidden commissions" on loans and the possibility of using relatively simple technology skorringovyh. But a call to the carpet to the president, apparently, made the leadership of Alpha to change their point of view: as after the revolution, every cook should have run the state, so now every major bank - especially if it is included in the "Top 30 "or" top 50 "- should engage in mortgage lending. This, apparently, is the main condition for implementing the national program "Affordable Housing". Alfa-Bank is not only announced the launch of its own mortgage lending program, but also predicted that soon it will begin to crowd out the business of the current favorite in the face of consumer lending. As an example, analysts at Alfa Bank, led the Eastern European countries, where the loan portfolios of banks mortgage and consumer lending, "select" roughly equal shares. Meanwhile, the second in Russia is experiencing a "boom" right now, the first is just beginning to gain momentum, so the potential is enormous it, experts say Alfa Bank. We agree with this view is not all: according to mortgage brokers, to the optimistic scenario, "painted" Alpha, implement, requires not only lower rates on loans. And not only credit easing (in the form of reducing or eliminating down payment requirements and the liberalization of the borrower), but also reduce the number of customers with "real money". At present day situation in Russia - and especially in Moscow - is that only 4-5 deal in the housing market is with a mortgage. And it happens not because the banks are not willing to lend to - people are not willing to take them because they have the ability to pay "real money" and the sellers are not willing to wait will be issued a mortgage loan and the buyer will come to them with the required amount. In today's market it is always possible to find an alternative bid, and not connected with the necessity of obtaining credit.