Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Mortgage market: the cake is already divided?

The mortgage had high expectations, it is called an essential tool for solving the housing problem in the country. In the banks created departments of mortgage lending, the administration of entities - the commission and the federal government - the agency. Meanwhile, last year in Moscow 12,000,000th issued only 4.4 thousand mortgage loans, but only in the country on the mortgage is made not more than 4% of the transactions. If the state does not support guarantees more loans, commercial banks do not appear to reduce the incentive rate and the additional payments the borrower. Conclusion unexpected: it is well known that banks are competing hard for the existing mortgage "tart." But after the boom in 2005 the influx of new players in the mortgage market began to dry up. Doubt and 'Wearing' the problems of the mortgage to the program "Housing" and the social sphere in general. According to various estimates, comparing incomes and mortgage terms, use the credits in the state from 6 to 8% of Russians. The vast majority of people who already have far more than 18 square meters. meters per person. This does not prevent officials claim that the mortgage has become the main way to provide citizens with housing. It is true that to prove such allegations with specific data is difficult. The data is there, but to them a lot of questions. We add and divide one of the goals of the program "Housing" - an increase by 2010 from 9 to 30% of the share of families that will be available for housing through their own and borrowed funds. Based on the fact that in Russia there are 46-48 million households, 30% - 14 million households. But, according to the same document, the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML) is ready to provide a government guarantee for 2006-2010 (except most commercial banks will not take risks), only 1.4 million loans. That is, the remaining 12.6 million households will receive a chance to take a hypothetical mortgage. Naturally, the lack of mortgage loans were not, and never will: the credit - the product is too expensive to become scarce. Chances are growing, but not all diamonds Maybe something will change? International Conference on "Affordable Housing in Russia: Where to start?" Deputy General Director Dmitry Glazunov HMLA reported that the average mortgage in the country of 430 thousand rubles. And then he promised that the annual number of mortgages issued in 2010 will increase to 1 million, and lending to the population - up to 415 billion rubles. a year. This means that in 2010 the average size of the mortgage loan amount to 415 thousand rubles., Then there is even a decrease compared to the current 430 thousand rubles. In Moscow the average loan size at the end of 2005 was $ 50 thousand in the suburbs - $ 25 thousand by some estimates, by the summer of 2006 in Moscow figure increased to $ 60-65 thousand in the area - up to $ 30K Up to one third of the cost apartment has an initial fee (equity the borrower). Those same $ 60-65 thousand - it's the other two thirds of the cheapest secondary studio apartment in Moscow. For the region of $ 30-35 thousand looks impressive, but when you consider that among the leaders in mortgage lending is dominated by the city near Moscow (Podolsk, Odintsovo, etc.), then we have the same two-thirds of the secondary "odnushki." These figures are consistent with those banks that most of the loans taken to buy a home in the secondary market. Still suggests that the mortgage, which has made their weighty two cents in the price increase, yet will help develop the market and new construction, sound particularly funny. It is also clear that the sharp increase in the minimum required credit the number of people applying for credit, as sharply reduced. It is unclear another: when management believes AHML, the trend will change to the opposite, ie the number of loans will grow, and their average value decrease? In other words, when housing starts to fall in price (either absolute or relative income)? The phrase about the number-million loan and the amount of amazing, but to what in fact does not oblige the officer, but to say that by such and such a year, housing starts fall in price - is another matter. While the increase in the average loan is behind the rising cost of housing (30-35% in Moscow since the beginning of the year), and income growth does not have time for neither the one nor the other. Actually, that's enough to put on the mortgage as a socially significant phenomenon bold cross. Take today - tomorrow it will be cheaper Another nice topic of conversation - reduction of the minimum rate mortgage. Simply put, HMLA painted banks chart of this decline by almost 1% per year by 2010 to bring the rate down to 8%. Of course, the percentage of the loan can not be below the inflation rate in the country. This rate will only provide a simple return of issued money, the bank needed income. In most European countries margin of 1-1.5% is acceptable, but we have less than 2-3% of the formal "dance" does not start. Thus, it is estimated that in 2010 inflation in Russia has to stoop to the level of 5%. If you decide that this is a joke, nothing. The government expects 4-5.5% in 2008. And in the election, that is rich in the social distribution of 2007 inflation is expected to reach 7%. Such promises are given at a time when plans to reduce annual inflation break down and it stubbornly refuses to fall below 10%. According to the chairman of the National Council for valuation of Ivan Grachev, reducing mortgage rates, carried out public entity with public money, of course, the affordability of housing had no immediate impact. "I think this is largely an artificial measure, there is no explicit inflation forecasts for this year and next year. Perhaps it is useful to someone, but it has many disadvantages, because it undermines the market component. " The situation looks amazing. One of the most important rules require the advertiser to the information about any product in any case not referred to the imminent appearance of another better product in this group or the best conditions for its acquisition. Otherwise, the person would merely postpone the purchase. The government, by requiring banks to reduce interest rates today, at the same time tells citizens: "Do not hurry, tomorrow it will be cheaper!" However, these actions are probably not devoid of meaning: the load on the property market a little, but decreases. The banks could relatively easily, since it reduced the initial payment from 35-50 to 15-30%. This payment has two main objectives: confirm the seriousness and viability of the borrower and provide for its eviction of more low-income housing, if it suddenly turns out to be unfounded. With the general rise in prices for real estate price difference between cheap and expensive housing is increasing. If a person is willing to put up $ 100-150 thousand a 20-25% strength of the initial payment, it is quite impressive. The debtor has not fulfilled its obligations? With that money he will choose an apartment easier. But this is so, the notes in the margins. Worse than others. While there is no guarantee that the actual lending rate will decline along with the official minimum, which is calculated without taking into account additional payments. A string of thread - a client without his shirt above, we were told that in our conditions, less than 2-3% margin, banks do not start to work. How much profit they get in the end and how much additional cost is the borrower, to calculate in advance is difficult. It is believed that if you have accumulated $ 50K, do not settle for a down payment of more than $ 45 thousand, or possible confusion with additional payments. These payments - are legion. During consideration of the application asking banks from $ 30 to $ 165 (those that prefer rubles, taking from one thousand to 2.6 thousand rubles).. That such a review is not always clear, since in addition to this fee and for the verification of documents (from 1 thousand rubles. Up to $ 100). Mortgages are sometimes separately and sometimes includes consideration of the application and verification of documents. The total amount is not reflected, and often it is expressed as a percentage of the loan amount from 0.5 to 1.5%. Money is taken as a safe-deposit box rental, notarization and registration of the agreement, an assessment of collateral (bought an apartment). To pay for the conversion of a mysterious loan and equity down payment, and even for cash withdrawals at the same bank to make payment. But the absolute achievement - a "fee fee" - the fee for credit service. It may be 2% of loan amount annually, but can - "only" 0.1% monthly. It seems that banks are doing everything that the client was filled with the thought: sitting in the establishment of the serious and busy people, and here I come with my trifling request. Some customers perceive all these tricks with a smile, these are the rules. Others, such an attitude highly disappointed. Perhaps, most people prefer to buy a loaf of bread for 15 rubles. Than 10 rubles. "Plus 10% for receiving money by the seller, 10% - for the counting of deposit and 10% - for the issuance of the goods." But could save ... The State Duma is still a draft law on consumer credit. He proposes to introduce a standard and transparent procedure for obtaining consumer credit, general conditions of contracts of lending. The document requires banks to provide full information on the total amount of payments on the loan. Without such a law is in principle possible even today to set lending rates at 8%: Fantasy bankers easily return business profitability. Here are even fewer buyers will represent the real value of the goods. Social Security in Pinochet is easy to agree with the banks in their concerns about the planned limits of insurance of mortgage transactions. Currently there are three required types of insurance: life and disability (0.5-2% of the loan amount), facility security (apartments, houses) in the event of serious injury (0.5% of the loan) and title (ownership rights the buyer for the apartment ) from claims by third parties (for about 0.5%). The last type of insurance is the most characteristic for Russia, because in the 1990s carried out many transactions in violation of the rights of minors, persons serving a sentence, pensioners and other categories of vulnerable citizens. Accordingly, the more flat from hand to hand, the harder its history, the higher the rate of this type of insurance. Recently enacted amendments to the Law "On Mortgage Securities". They provide for the abolition of mandatory life insurance and disability. MPs, without further ado, argue that it would reduce the total amount of payments to the borrower, then make mortgages more attractive. In this case they refer to the experience of Europe and the U.S. where the borrower does not require such insurance. That's right. Subtlety is that in most Western countries are insured life and health in childhood. In many countries without such insurance does not step to step. Recall, buy apartment on the mortgage immediately becomes the property of the borrower. Today, if he becomes disabled first group, he will be released on payment, but if it die - flat pass to heirs. Lender same amount of forgone return the insurance company. If the life insurance and disability to cancel, then the banks will have to evict a disabled or deceased relatives of the borrower, and this is troublesome and harmful to the image. They lose the borrower and his family talk too. Cancel insurance for banks absolutely unacceptable, and it will avoid it easily. Banks are not obliged to inform the applicant for the loan of the cause of failure in lending. But they have the right to make recommendations and ask questions. For example, ask whether he still has insured his life and health and does not want to show whether the relevant documents. Perhaps the banks that provide mortgages, could significantly increase their clientele by a large group of citizens who have sufficient income, but are not sure of their stability. In this regard, interested in the experience of countries where the economic recovery began under the rule of military dictators - South Korea, Spain, Chile. In the 1970s, unions in these countries were simply banned, any worker or specialist could be fired within five minutes. But a boom in consumer, including mortgage, credit. At the same time was the development of insurance in case of job loss. There is a most interesting phenomenon: lawyers and insurance companies, banks, creditors jointly defended their customers better than the trade unions in many countries. Moreover, this protection has become an additional incentive for employees to take the credit. Daffy employers routinely fired bona fide employees or banning them insurance in case of job loss, that is hindering the long-term loan receivable, were in "black" lists, they themselves have difficulty in dealing with banks. No politics and nothing personal. Only business. Yes, insurance is a "working space" or their own business (for small businesses), we can not overcome the embryonic stage, but its development would be a great manifestation of the true social responsibility. To their advantage. In the social responsibility of the state ... Of course, interest-free loan distribution can be expected. Yes, and current levels of housing at such generosity is simply not enough. But there is a Moscow experience social mortgage. Metropolitan government for the city budget subsidizes interest payments on the loan to the waiting, wishing to get an apartment early and agree a way to pay for part of its cost. Credit is given for up to 30 years, and the price of 1 sq. km. m is set at cost. The trouble is that between a few thousand "social mortgage holders" of Moscow and other beneficiaries (military, young families, immigrants from the North, etc.) and 6-8% of those who are able to overpower the mortgage on their own, are the remaining 90% of citizens of Russia. Banks involved in the mortgage, deserve respect, if only because they work in this area. Does the development of mortgage someone else and whether these activities are for the benefit of the mortgage, is not clear yet.

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