The volume of the 2010 mortgage loans continues to recover gradually returning to pre-crisis levels. HMLA reported on the process of reducing mortgage rates, the level of which can reach pre-crisis levels. However, market experts believe that hardly expect more generosity from the banks in 2011. According to the AHML mortgage market continues to recover Russia: over 11 months of 2010 the volume of mortgage loans by 2.5 times exceeded the volume of issuance in 11 months of 2009 and amounted to 315.1 billion rubles. Rates on mortgage loans in rubles, issued during the month of November 2010, compared with September 2010, down from 13.2% to 12.6%. This value is below pre-crisis figures, the average rate of mortgage loans in rubles in January-October 2008 was 12.7%. According to experts, in 2010, the accumulated amount of mortgage debt on mortgage loans on banks' balance sheets reached a historical high of 1.1 trillion rubles (up to a maximum value of this indicator in 1.09 trillion rubles was observed on 01.03.2009.) Seasonal spikes According to the study AHML dynamics of mortgage loans in Russia for the first 11 months of 2010 shows that the recovery of the mortgage market continues. According to the Bank of Russia, in November 2010 granted 34,050 mortgage loans totaling $ 42.3 billion rubles. A total of 11 months of 2010 issued 252 072 mortgage loans totaling $ 315.1 billion rubles. The value of loans disbursed during the period of 2010, 2.5 times higher than in the comparable period in 2009. In quantitative terms, over 11 months of 2010 provided a 2.04 times higher mortgages than the same period in 2009. A slight decrease in monthly growth rates of mortgage loans in October and November 2010, analysts explain that in the IV quarter of 2009, there were first signs of recovery in the mortgage market, and thus the analysis of intra-market dynamics of mortgage lending gradually ceases to affect the effect of "low base ". However, the November issue of the dynamics of mortgage loans shows some seasonal surge in issuance of the mortgage at the end of 2010. Ruble popularity statistics for the CBR reflects ongoing growth in ruble housing loans amid falling currency. The volume of loans in rubles amounted to 1.070 trillion rubles on December 1, 2010 against 0.967 trillion at the beginning of 2010, and in foreign currency, 0.2 trillion rubles to 0.214 trillion. According to CB, only the 2010 volume of housing loans, including mortgages issued in rubles and foreign currency in Russia grew by 7.5%. If at the beginning of 2010, this volume was 1.181 trillion rubles by the end of December 2010 it rose to 1.270 trillion rubles. However, the failure of such loans also increased, by 46.3% to 50.5 billion rubles. The share of arrears on housing loans at December 1, 2010 was 3.9% versus 2.9% on January 1, 2010. Only last November it had risen by 0.43 percentage points. Meanwhile, back in late 2009, HMLA CEO Alexander Semenyaka predicted that in 2010 banks will issue about 340 billion of mortgage loans, which is 2.2 times higher than in 2009. Incomes rise, the loans taken according AHML, almost 7% compared to 2009 increased the average size of loan, from 1.17 to 1.25 million rubles. Thus analysts HMLA believe that increasing the size of the loan reflects both the dynamics of recovery of income of the population (according to Rosstat, in January-October 2010 real disposable income by 4.3% higher than the corresponding period of 2009) and housing prices (up to nine months of 2010, average housing prices rose by more than 6.8% relative to the IV quarter of 2009). Active Russians Russians in 2010, almost twice as likely to use a mortgage to buy a home. This is according to the Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre, and Cartography (Rosreestr). "The total number of records of mortgages in the unified state register of real estate rights and transactions (EGRP) totaled 1.33 million, which is almost 2 times higher than last year (823.5 thousand). A significant increase in the number of entries made on the mortgage, compared with 2009, reflects the increasing need to attract applicants of credit to buy real estate "- noted in the department of media relations Rosreestra. By the end of 2010 the average rate on mortgage loans in rubles was 13.2% (compared to that in the ten months of 2010, the stake fell by 0.1 percentage points), while loans in foreign currency- 11,1%. "Monthly average interest rates on the dynamics of loans indicates a significant reduction in mortgage interest rates during October-November 2010. Interest rates on loans in rubles, issued in November, continued to decline. In September 2010 the rate was at 13.2%, whereas in November 2010, 12.6%, a decrease, thus, for two months at 0.6%. Rate of decline in monthly rates of mortgage loans in rubles for the past two months are the highest in 2010. Monthly rates on loans in rubles has reached crisis level: in the first three quarters of 2008, the average rate on credits in rubles and amounted to 12.7%, a historic low was recorded in the first quarter of 2008, 12.4% ", - said The report of the company. Experts believe that this situation is due to previously announced a significant reduction in rates of the leading players in the mortgage market, which began to affect the issue in October 2010. HMLA expects that the main effect of interest rate reduction issue will affect the average level of mortgage interest rates in early 2011, when the loans in the first half on higher interest rates will no longer be considered statistically Bank of Russia. In debt, as in silks Unlike the experts, the Central Bank analysts HMLA believe that the mortgage market tends to stabilize the share of overdue debt in total mortgage lending. According to the forecasts of the analytical center of this trend is possible due to the increase in total mortgage debt on banks' balance sheets of the month, this indicator grew by 1.7%, the first time in history, surpassing the level of 1.1 trillion. rubles. "Before that, the maximum level of accumulated mortgage debt on the balance sheets of banks was observed up to February 2009, when it was 1.09 trillion. rubles ", - give figures on the mortgage experts. Thus, according to the Bank of Russia on 01.12.2010, the amount owed on the mortgage loans, which have not been allowed any late payment or time delay does not exceed one month, exceeded 91%. The combined share of default of debt, with payments overdue by 91 days or more, is 6.95%, the share of debt from a technical delay in payment (one month) - 5% and the share of debt with the average delay (from 31 to 90 days) - 1.77%. According to the chairman of the Bank Flexinvest Mishuris Marina, this situation can be explained as follows: those borrowers who have suffered a crisis, solved their financial problems or continue to be in default. "To those who continue to be in default -" last year "debtor, periodically added to customers who lose their income now (despite the ending of" acute "phase of the crisis, such cases occur, although much less frequently than, for example, in early 2009 ..) Increase the absolute value of outstanding debt may also explain the accumulation of the payment amounts not paid by the client. The share of overdue debt in relation to the entire loan portfolio decreased by increasing the issuance of new loans (which, of course, the delay still is formed), "- explains the expert. Demand is the demand will be, believes Marina Mishuris, HMLA report uses statistics of the Central Bank, so that there is no reason not to trust him. "The trend to increase demand for mortgage loans of our bank has a place to be and it fits into the overall situation on the market. With regard to interest rates, then you need to mention that, despite the average approximation of rates to pre-crisis, talk about a return to pre-crisis loans early. Whereas previously there have been proposals from several banks rates at 10%, now offers such rare and occur mainly in banks with state participation. Therefore, we do not expect that in the first half of 2011 will be reduced rates ", - speaks Mishuris Marina. Predicts the head of mortgage services "RELAYT Real Estate" Irina Kazhikina, if the cost of funds for banks will decline, and mortgage rates will be lower. "Promote the reduction of rates will be competition between banks. It is also worth noting that almost all banks now offer combined rates for loans (which are less risky for borrowers than floating rates, but more profitable fixed by 2-3 points), "- said Kazhikina. Forecasts of mortgages on the secondary market, believes Alexander Serebryakov, Deputy General Director of "Miel Brokerage 'on mortgage programs, the fact that recovery of mortgage lending in 2010 is evident, the pace of growth in the number of mortgage transactions are rather important: More However, Irina believes Kazhikina that significantly expand the range of mortgage programs are anticipated. Banks that have continued to issue mortgage loans in 2008-2009, has revived almost all mortgage products available to them before the crisis. Extending the line of credit products can be seen from the banks that are just entering the market (usually the "newcomers" offer a 3-product credit for the purchase of secondary urban secondary real estate loan secured by existing real estate loan to buy a suburban real estate). "The demand will recover, but prospects of demand for pre-crisis level in 2011, seems to me improbable" - does not agree with the predictions HMLA Kazhikina. According to the director of marketing, "Kreditmart" Tatiana Budoraginoy if the economic situation will allow customers to count on a stable income, a growing number of potential borrowers will return to the mortgage market. "The banks have sufficient liquidity to meet the demand of mortgage customers. Banks will also offer loans on the secondary market, credit facilities in the primary market (the number of offers from banks may rise by some cooperative programs with developers), customers can also get cash for mortgages owned by the client, a limited number of customers will be able to refinance before obtained loans on more favorable terms. But it should be noted that a larger number of buyers in the market naturally will increase the offer price from the sellers of apartments. We recommend that customers do not wait, and if you can, then take a mortgage loan today and live in his apartment "- suggests Budoragina. Forecasts of the market of new mortgages As the director of the Department of the mortgage company "Miel New" Christina Hops, the results do show in 2010 the positive trend of mortgage transactions. 2010 was the year of the revival of mortgages for the following reasons: More In "Kreditmart" believe that in 2011, most likely, a significant reduction in rates does not happen, because today offers at rates almost reached pre-crisis levels. If you can count on the decline, it is no more than two percent of the average market rate as compared with the proposal of the market in 2010. "Maybe some players in the market will adjust their programs, but in general, banks are now almost back to pre-crisis requirements for borrowers. Banks' claims to having a positive credit history with customers will remain unchanged "- sums up Tatiana Budoragina.
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