How many were built, sold and leased commercial property in St. Petersburg in 2010? To answer this question, the largest brokerage firms in the city real estate exchanged information and made the first brokerage rating Petersburg. Upscale offices get up is not going to find that the expectations of many companies were overvalued. But the desire to avoid investment risks and, as a consequence, information transparency, given the opportunity to adjust plans in the near future. In 2010, in St. Petersburg, as announced at the launch of the First brokerage rankings, the magazine's editors organized «Commercial Real Estate-North-West" with the support of the Guild of Managers and Developers (GMD), director of consulting and appraisal of real estate consulting group "LIDA" Svetlana Chevdar was constructed and commissioned in just over 250 thousand square meters. m of office and about 470 thousand square meters. m-commerce warehouses. The participants presented their vision of the presentation of annual results and outlook in each of the classes of business property. Thus, according to Managing Director of NAI Becar SPb Ilya Andreev, the year the city has built five new business centers, Class A, the amount of office space in which to set the order of 51 thousand square meters. m. At the same time, to his knowledge, the proposal in this segment is about 60 thousand square meters. m. So the rental rates for high-quality office space in 2010, almost unchanged, while in the range from 900 to 2000 rubles per 1 square. M per month. In 2010, the business centers of Class A was leased about 66,995 square meters. (89 deals) and a 9988 square meters. m (a business center) of office space has been sold. Also note that as a result of the classification carried out by the Guild in 2010, five business centers raised their status, moving from Class B + to A. Thus, according to the classification currently in St. Petersburg has 26 business centers class A. This and growth for the year is not very significant, and little hope of growth rates in 2011, experts do not. Will the market absorb the planned amount for 2011 entry? On this question, according to CEO Real Estate of Albert Kharchenko, seeks to answer the majority of market participants. According to NAI Becar, today in about 14 projects, business centers, Class A, the total leasable area of which may be about 200 thousand sq. m. "Most likely to be introduced in 2011 8.7 Business Class A" - suggested Andreev. "According to a survey of owners who own their facilities qualify as a business tsenry Class A in 2011 will put 105 thousand square meters. m high-end commercial real estate ", - says Alexander Kharchenko. According to him 20% of space in business centers of Class A vacant today. Both experts do not express hopes for growth in rents in 2011 Did that those owners who kept the rate below the market, try to align them. When saving rates at the current level of 105 thousand new "square" is filled no more than 70-80 thousand, predicts the CEO of Real Estate VA Kharchenko. In addition, it is projected to continue interest in the format of the tenant space and the trend toward decentralization. Today, according to the director of NAI Becar I. Andreev, 62% business centers of Class A is located in downtown areas. "A" and "B" in anticipation of demand The main component of the volume entering the real estate business in 2010 in St. Petersburg - it's business centers of Class B and B +. As vice president, told the Guild, managing partner of "IB Group" Sergei Igonin, annual growth in this segment due to newly constructed facilities amounted to 180 thousand sq.m. Thus it was concluded 419 lease transactions at 129 564 square meters. and 7 sales is - at 15 637 square meters. m. In 2010, the Class B was much in demand, says S. Igonin. Demand formed medium-sized companies that are interested in the premises of the meter and the average fine finish. Rental rates have stabilized, and since mid-2010, brokers felt that it became easier to sell. By the end of the year there was even a slight increase in rates. The lower bound rates grew to 900-1000, and the top - to 1400 rubles per 1 square. m. per month. Despite the fact that about 200 thousand square meters. 150 m of business tsenrah class B and B + was empty, and the pent-up demand has remained the deputy general director of Maris Properties / CBRE Hope Yermishin. For example, 60 thousand free "squares" in the class A, according to her, is very small. With this amount of job brokers could offer 15-18 options for high-quality sites, but if the client is required about a thousand squares, the choice was very narrow, the expert said. According to the forecast Igonina C., the amount of input in 2011 in the office segment will be 190 thousand square meters. m. According to N. Yermishin, at the same time, the expected demand - 80-100 thousand square meters. m. "2011 will not be the best in terms of absorption, - she predicts. - In 2010, the segment took place only 44 transactions, and only 3% of them on the new complex. " And yet, as suggested by N. Yermishin, the growth rate is possible: "In 2010, the tenant claimed 2-3 in the same area, and in 2011, this also may be" the expert said. According to her, is also possible waves of migration - but, if supply growth. However, as noted by S. Igonin, the main trend of this period - concern about the substantial increase in contributions to the Pension Fund of Russia. "This burden may negatively affect the labor market by mid-2011, and if that happens, it is possible that demand will fall," - he said. "C" here to stay At the same time, according to brokerage rankings in 2010, was concluded 132 transactions for a total rent of 14 318 square meters. m of office space in business centers class C sales data have been recorded. The growth of this segment due to new construction, according to another vice-president of the Guild, VMB Trust CEO Alexander Grishin, amounted to about 20 thousand square meters. m. "segment of complex, business is quiet, not advertised. But on the profitability of these facilities sometimes give odds upscale, he says. - During the year, rates rose by almost 2-fold - from 400 to 750 rubles per 1 square. M per month. " The biggest demand in this segment, according to the head of the brokerage department of "MK ICB" Dmitry Deev on space from 25 to 40 square meters. m. In the business centers of Class B / B + such area may be, and are offered, but there is limited supply, he adds. According to his observations, with good walking from the subway, the occupancy rate in the business centers of Class C is about 90-95%. But in those complexes, to which you want to go 10-15 minutes from the subway, and where there are difficulties with parking, vacant half or even more than half of leasable space. "The owners of such facilities do not need PR. And the business centers of this kind were built and will be built "- predicts AD Deev. "The main trend of this segment - is squeezing all the juice out of the building then, so you put it on the reconstruction. The owners simply use the current market situation ", - adds Grishin. Perhaps some of the tenants decided to move more of the business centers of class to better the area, suggested the head of department on work with clients' delicate move "Alexander Arkhipov, if the owners of business centers in the class gave them preferential rates for the first time . After moving on its own - a piece expensive, says the expert. Retail encouraging total area introduced in 2010, shopping centers and mixed-up 470 thousand square meters. m. The 208 thousand square meters. m, according to the rankings, was rented, and 600 thousand square meters. 4 m centers sold. It is this segment of commercial real estate, as noted by the Director of Business Development ASTERA Lyudmila Reva, was restored in 2010, the fastest. "Volumes I, 2010, 6.5 times higher than in 2009, and became comparable with the pre-crisis level," - she said. In general, the amount of retail space in St. Petersburg over the past 5 years increased from 1.5 to 4 million square meters. m. In 2010, opened two large facilities - IFC "Nevsky Center" and TRC "Gallery", where there are new brands, and earlier than in Moscow. As a result, Central District of St. Petersburg came in first place in the city for provision of retail space (1.2 square meters. M per person), surpassing the competition, although not essential, the former leader of the stable - Primorsky region. The first in this segment of real estate are highly in demand terms that are suitable for retail clothing, footwear and food products - retail. Growing demand for them, as told Reva L., began in the II half of 2010 in the first half, the demand for stritriteyl grew slowly added, head of marketing research Praktis C & B Lubava Pryanikova. Summer was a lull, and autumn was already rapid growth. The greatest interest were the site for catering. Segment is well developed in the major trade corridors, said L. Pryanikova, including in residential areas - on the avenues of the Enlightenment, Lenin and the Bolsheviks, the Commandant. Twice increased rental rates within these corridors in the city center - on the Nevsky Prospect, the Greater pr PS, etc. In the Middle. Outside the center - the growth is low. Rates rose in popular shopping malls and went from 400 to 1200 rubles per 1 square. m per month, adds L. Reva. And in some places, many times more - the spread is very large, said the expert. At the same time, the job market as a whole, according to L. Reva, the order of 20%, and in a not very successful shopping centers - up to 40%. In addition, as noted by the head of the St. Petersburg branch of Jones Lang LaSalle, Andrei Rozov, quality retail space in St. Petersburg is still very small. "With the opening of TRC" Summer ", its volume handled over 1.5 million square meters. m, - he said. - In good company vacancy is zero, "he says. According to him, the whole city to be commissioned before the end of 2012, prepared 12 projects with a total area of about 250 thousand square meters. m leasable retail space. Perhaps, in 2011-2012. will be several projects reconception, did not rule it. "The demand is because purchasing power is growing. Shopping centers and malls will be built, - said A. Rozov. - We are very positive about the prospects for retail development, and are ready to help find tenants, "concludes the expert. The hotel sector did not think lower rpm level of street trading - an important moment in the aspect of the tourist attraction. But more tourists need hotels. From March to October in St. Petersburg hotels, as noted by the managing partner ARIN Igor Gorsky, very densely populated. Thus, the average occupancy rate of hotels in Paris during the peak tourist season is 95-97%, London - 92%, and St Petersburg - 87%. In the low season, the plank is lowered into the tourist center - 3 - 5 times. And in the winter Petersburg hotels are filled only by 30-40%. Clearly, the need to develop tourism programs and during this period. And besides, we should not forget that tourism is very much dependent on state support, the expert emphasizes. This is particularly true for the visa regime. If the authorities succeed in St Petersburg airport for the same preferences for visas, and that for the Marine Passenger Terminal, the flow of tourists will increase very significantly, and the shortfall of hotel space will be much faster. However, according to AI Gorsky, despite the crisis, the hotel business has developed and is developing quite dynamically. Thus, according to him, the volumes entering the hotel property in 2007 amounted to 524 numbers in the 2008 entry has tripled, reaching 1250 of rooms in 2009, was introduced in 1404 numbers, then the growth has stabilized and the results of 2010 amounted to 1412 numbers. In 2011, as predicted by AI Gorsky, will be introduced in a total of 1419 rooms. All in all, in St. Petersburg today operates 615 hotels in 27 thousand rooms. The combined vacancy in the city averages about five thousand rooms. In this case the overwhelming majority of hotel stock is located in Central, Petrograd, Vasileostrovsky and Admiralty areas. Further, a large margin from all the other peripheral areas are the Moscow region - here hotel area in demand along the road to the airport. Storage rely on trade and holding on to the assembly by the end of 2010, 15 companies took part in the rankings, leased 188,762 square meters. m of warehouse space, signing 89 lease transactions. In addition, in this sector have been recorded of the sale of two warehouses with total area of 31,260 square meters. m. The introduction of new warehouse space for the year, according to CEO of St. Petersburg branch of Knight Frank Nicholas Pashkov totaled 99.5 thousand square meters. Forecast am an expert on the input area in 2011 is very disappointing - 50 thousand square meters. The volume of deals in the sector of commercial real estate, according to him, is now 1.7 million. sqm. m. In fact, until 2005, in St. Petersburg, there was no storage class, and now the share of high-end segment is 72% of all transactions. Maybe offer it excessively, does not exclude the expert. Moreover, that a vacancy in the segment is 25%, which is filled with 120-130 thousand of 173 thousand square meters. m total area of the warehouses of class A. Given that the overall level of vacancies in the sector - 150 thousand square meters. m. In 2009, the absorption was negative. In 2010 - marked a large absorption. In addition, the increased area of applications: before 2010 for potential tenants interested in the premises of 1-1.5 thousand square meters. meters, but now there is an application and to 3-5 thousand situation within the sector as a whole has changed dramatically underscores N. Pashkov. For example, if prior to 2010 were recorded in the main absorption logistics complexes, we now ask the area not only for storage but also for industrial purposes - to build, for example. Still, some parcels for growth, says N. Pashkov there. First of all, it is the hope for a recovery in demand from retailers and the increase in freight traffic through St. Petersburg. Did not exclude the expert and the growth in demand for storage space from the industrialists. Where the land cost Judging by the market of land for industrial use, reliance on manufacturers, may not be unfounded, the head of the St. Petersburg branch of GVA Sawyer, Vice-President of the Guild Nicholas Evening. The demand for such land in St. Petersburg is practically absent, he said, did not rule that deters potential buyers prospects for intensifying policy of repression in the Smolny industry to the suburbs. City officials, according to him, aware of the depth of this problem, so they try to stimulate the development of industrial parks. However, the status of land set aside for such construction, market participants seem insufficiently defined. At the same time the so-called small industry in industrial zones aims to Leningrad - in Gorelovo Yanino and Agalakova; interested in industrial land along the ring road - but only by trained engineering areas ranging from 0.3 to 1 ha. The average purchase price is, according to N. Evenings, no more than 10 million rubles per 0.5 hectares - about 50 Euro per 1 sq. km. m. build commercial property in areas of existing development plans in St. Petersburg, according to an expert, not big develoveroperskie companies willing to undertake the development of the site area of 0.2 - 0.8 hectares, and which are the ground on the secondary market. At the same time, large companies work with their land or try to get a state contract. Though the macroeconomic environment in 2010 was positive, however, because of budget deficit reduction was observed at all levels of investment, including social programs, rely on the demand for land for commercial nedvizhmost not have to, sums N. the evening. Still, the growth of investment in land is not excluded, objected CEO of Colliers International SPb Nicholas Kazan: "Today, everyone wants to buy the object at 12% annual yield, but there is nothing to buy, now is the time to buy land." Let the capitalization rate for the whole commercial real estate market has fallen from 15 to 10%, but the price for it at the same time increases, he said. Thus, according to his estimates, in 2010, was made the investment transactions for the acquisition of land for building and operating commercial properties, totaling nearly $ 0.5 billion, that of St. Petersburg is very serious. Although, it must be noted that this figure is twice lower than pre-crisis levels. To restore the entire commercial real estate market, according to N. Kazan, it may take at least another 1-2 years. "But there is a positive result and a crisis - he adds. - The market has become more transparent! And it is clear that what is on sale for $ 25 million had been built for 20 million is even slightly more transparent than in the West, "said Nikolai Kazansky.
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