Sunday, November 13, 2011

Suburban real estate market reaps the fruits of the crisis - not only economic, but also confidence

Suburban real estate market is reaping the benefits of the crisis - not only economic, but also trust. Developers need to learn to adapt to demand, diversify risk and to effectively use the land in early November at the City Hall of Ekaterinburg were bidding for the sale of lease rights of land to build housing. On auction sites exhibited 28. At the same time bidding on the majority of sites designed for the complex low-rise building, have been canceled due to lack of applicants, but for a site for individual cottages fierce struggle. Almost every item has competed for three or four contenders. The final price exceeded the starting 2-6 times. The excitement around the land for individual housing construction (individual housing) appeared for the first time since the crisis began. However, the optimistic news is. Trading results show that investors in the construction of cottage settlements is not interested. Stop the car's position is justified by investors: the Urals market-town real estate (here we include also communities, and individual housing facilities located on the outskirts of the city) is in a state of stagnation. In the spring of this housing prices hit bottom in the next six months - increased by a few percents. Director of the Department estimates the company "Invest-audit" (Perm), Olga Vasilyeva: - Segment continues to suffer the consequences of the crisis period. In general, the situation has stabilized and the prerequisites of its deterioration is not observed. Since mid-summer of 2009, the market price of the Perm region (including sites in the city) fell by 0.6%. In the spring and summer of 2010, while the traditional market activity of individual housing, the average price increased by 2.6%. Such growth can not be considered significant. However, in terms of stabilization particularly noticeable price fluctuations, as a rule and not recorded. The current demand is very limited and on quantitative and qualitative characteristics. Managing partner of the analytical center of Perm Irina Trubinov adds: "The developers have a desire to build a guaranteed demand, and buyers, in turn, are not ready to invest in the open field. Especially in this market weight of little-known players who had not only had no experience of building a country, but often do not engage in construction in general. " The situation is similar to other regional centers (most suburban facilities built around it). Director of "BROC" (Tyumen) Ludmila Dorovikova: "I doubt that in some segment of the real estate market is at least some recovery. Talk about the prices started rising, increasing the number of transactions on the passage of the "bottom" are more like fakirskie spells. In my opinion, the market is kind of not very stable equilibrium, no more. " According to an analyst of the Ural Chamber of Real Estate (Yekaterinburg) Gleb Krivosheyeva, fence - the most inert segment of the real estate market, changes are occurring with greater time lag, "If today's segment of the urban multi-family housing revitalization is felt, then any positive dynamics in the sector of private construction not is observed. Builders and realtors say that the volume of transactions is very low, most of the objects sold slowly. Relatively high demand is only in the elite segment. " Noticeable positive dynamics can boast except Ufa. There, according to a network of estate agents 'expert', the average cost of housing grows by 1 - 2% per month. Since the beginning of the year the price increased by 13.2%. However, Bashkortostan - a region-specific and a highly developed country construction sector. Step to the adequacy of the crisis hit the country real estate markets of different areas of the Urals with unequal force. In Yekaterinburg, stopped more than a third of projects, but things gradually, until the spring of 2009 realtors have reported selling out of inertia. In Perm, the collapse happened instantly. Olga Vasilyeva: "The beginning of the crisis coincided with a seasonal lull in the Permian suburban housing market, so buyers do not become almost instantly. Most new projects have been frozen, and the unfinished part of the settlements in the countryside has become protracted. In the first two or three months of the crisis the average price decreased by 10 - 15%. During the past 13 months the market suburban housing had an overall negative impact of the crisis tendencies. The level of demand remained low during the first half of 2009, the basic building materials became cheaper, investors decided a long time to put aside their business plans. " Almost completely stopped construction in Chelyabinsk. Despite this, in our opinion, the crisis has had a positive impact on the market. First, he cleaned out the non-professional players who have come in from other areas of construction. In 2007 - 2008 years of growth in commodity markets forced the mining business and service his company in any way to use the funds received. Many have chosen as an investment project construction, including the countryside, while not having competence in this field. Second, the crisis has changed the approach of some developers to sales of the object. According to Director of "Invest Consulting Business" (Chelyabinsk) Stanislaus Akhmedzyanova, developers began to listen to the customer, offering ready-made objects with the infrastructure (roads, engineering), reduced the cost of housing up to the fair, started offering installment schemes, loans, mortgages. Some have dramatically increased the variability of design solutions (a typical picture of the village before the crisis - three to five types of houses and all of the bricks). Besides, adds Gleb Krivosheev, "in order to increase the attractiveness of suburban housing developers have tried to reduce the cost of houses constructed by the active use of new efficient technologies development. Along with this was the decline in projected townships. Previously, companies were trying to deploy a large-scale construction site, now they are not at risk and reduce the amount obtained by dividing the building into small towns turn. " The most resourceful developers or used car sales in the popular scheme of trade-in (Townhouse customer shall be credited the cost of buying a country house in one of the specific villages), or offer various bonuses. Roughly they can be divided into three classes. The first - the provision of free services or a valuable gift. Gift may be, for example, a machine. The second - a free land or additional square footage. However, experts estimate such options rather skeptical. It is obvious that a plot of land, and the cost of additional square meters have already been laid in the price of homeownership. The third class - free services for improving homes and land (eg, conducting communications within the home, landscaping, home design project as a gift). Explicitly, the structure of the proposal: some companies shifted to the sale of sites with infrastructure, but without a contract (before the crisis, the vast majority of developers about it even did not want to hear). Developers are left without any money, focused on the land delimited. The most important is to Perm. They share settlements, where to sell these sites are exposed, more than 40%. Irina explains Trubinov: - We have potential buyers are tired of promises and announcements. All the villages trying to push projects around the same strategy: a lot of promise, from roads to the social sphere on the objects, but in reality nothing is being built over the years. Buyers do not need the bare fields and beautiful promises - they just do not believe this, so it is easier to build a cottage itself, controlling every phase of construction, which in most cases, is happening now. I would say that in the Permian suburban real estate market is not monetary crisis (the money people have), but a crisis of confidence. Consumers do not believe that the village will be built on time, do not believe that there will be social sphere, maintenance and more. People need the finished product, clear and simple as a flat, and they do not want to pay for potential problems, especially since this is a very significant money. Therefore the problem of the developer - to build a finished product (at home), social programs, and then start selling. The open field can be sold when it is successfully implemented at least one project and received positive feedback about him and the management company. Note we do not experience delusions: the positive changes were not all areas and not all developers. Many companies are somehow endured eighteen months, and hope to go again on a wave of pent-up demand. And rich and poor, however the main question put before the crisis the country real estate developers - the efficient use of land and diversifying the product line. At this wave, many analysts have stated, a solution that will kill two birds with one stone, - multi-village. The essence - the union in the same area of ​​different types of buildings (maximum possible: cottages, townhouses, duplexes and low-rise apartment houses). The idea is not new. According to the head of the suburban real estate Academy "MIC-real estate" (Moscow) Isabella Postolovskoy in Moscow on 20% of settlements are built in such a format. The first examples of that in the Urals - in Tyumen, Ufa, and Ekaterinburg. However, the maximum diversity is represented in the project "Karaseozersky-2" in the capital of the Middle Urals. The remaining united only townhouses and cottages. Pros MULTI obvious. First, it reduces the cost of housing and infrastructure. Obviously, in the 2011 - 2012 years, land prices and the primary Land-development will grow. In such circumstances, profitable compact construction. Second, multi-format allows the project to focus on several target groups. Conditionally: cottages - for the rich people who want a spacious house with a large plot, ready for serious maintenance. Townhouses and duplexes (home, consisting of two apartments with separate entrances) - for customers with average income (the amount of operating costs by 25 - 35% lower than kottdzhey). Apartment houses - the relative economy class (cost 30% less compared with townhouses). In this public space people united: the apartment owners are free to enjoy the landscaped area and the entire infrastructure of the village. Varying amounts of a particular format, you can dramatically reduce the time exposure of real estate. The third advantage - efficient use of land. According to the lead consultant of the Department-of-town real estate company "New Quality" (Moscow), Ivan Sokolov, mixed format more efficient solution for buildings with even the most successful site, making the project more liquid. Townhouses and apartment buildings may be located along roads or other areas devoid of natural advantages. They can "cover" expensive offers from highways and other towns. Most sites are built winning cottages. Moscow realtors have even developed a rough structure of multi-format settlements. For example, Isabella Postolovskaya believes that in the villages of the middle or business class for roads and public areas is given from 30 to 40% of the total area, the rest - for different types of housing. In this area goes under houses 20 - 25% under the townhouses - 55 - 65%, and under low-rise buildings - 15 - 20%. This figure is confirmed by the Urals and experience. For example, in Karaseozerskom-2 at the opening of the first phase has sold 80% of the townhouses and the order of 20 - 30% of houses and apartments. When it comes to the segment of expensive high quality country houses, the houses in this village occupied about 80% of the total floor area, 15% are accounted for townhouses, and only 5% - for malokvartirnye home. Loss of concentration when all the attractiveness of multi-format is not always a panacea. According to Gleb Krivosheeva determining factor - the distance from the city is multi-format settlements or build within the boundaries of the municipality, or within 5 - 7 km away. This will attract buyers looking to purchase property in areas remote from the bustling center. "Within a radius of 15 - 20 km or more to build a multi-village is illogical, I do not think anyone wants to buy an apartment there, and even townhouses." The second danger - the union of consumers of different social strata. If not properly zonirovat territory or not to build a pricing policy (for example, enter the Cost requirement to cut off certain buyers), then a comfortable co-existence will not work. Finally, the third risk - the leveling of the project, the erosion of the brand, bad marketing. Rather, the guarantor of the success of the project - clear vision, an adequate price, and her strict customer orientation. Such a statement seems trite, but at last we give an example. According to the experts of "Invest-audit", the most in demand today in Perm objects in the price range of 2.5 to 3.5 million rubles. For the same amount for the acquisition of demand-oriented cottage, an area of ​​120 - 150 squares with all the communication and development of external infrastructure. However, the foundation offers Perm - cottages in a 200 - 250 square meters. meters (the proportion of buildings with area of ​​200 square meters. m - 62%). At an average cost of a 27 - 29 thousand per square house can be bought for 6 million. But consumers do not.

No comments:

Post a Comment