Waiting for the collapse of the housing market and massive decline in housing prices can breathe a sigh in disappointment - the industry has resisted. The average price per square meter and not dropped below 70 thousand rubles, and, as experts predict, will be gradually increased. Scarcity of apartments, which government and business spoke for nearly three years, is also expected. These are the results of 2010 in St. Petersburg. We have been building, building ... According to officials, the construction industry is experiencing the success of the city - in 2010, housing was delivered even more than the planned power. Instead of 2.5 million square meters built and put into operation 2, 656 million, with the share of individual housing of them are 122.9 thousands of "squares" (496 homes on 496 apartments). Due to the budget was built 350 thousand square meters, all other new buildings were erected by private companies. Inspired by the success, the vice-governor of St. Petersburg Roman Filimonov promised that next year will be built over 3 million square meters. The estimates of independent analysts agree with the reviews of the authorities. According to the Agency for Development and Research in Real Estate (ARIN), the beginning of 2011 the volume of supply in the primary market of 2019 million square meters - a little less than a year ago (in the first quarter of 2331 were sold a thousand). Supply shortage, which is so feared by many participants of the market and not yet due. It does not happen, apparently, and in the future - according to ARIN, during 2010 the market came out of 48 new projects (75% more than in the midst of the crisis in 2009). The truth is sold, according to the holding RBI, built about half - 1.2 million square meters in the segment of mass housing and 90 000 "squares" in a segment of the elite. Equilibrium in the market until quite fragile. Apartments for sale in unfinished or close to completion of homes, less than half. 44% of the objects on which open to sale, at an early stage of construction, and another 12% - half built. In this case, the director of the Department of buildings the Academy "Bekar" Olga Litvichenko, buyers are afraid to buy apartments in unfinished buildings - at the level of transactions, "the pit" in the market a bit. Market participants to assess the results of 2010 are not yet ready, but let down by their preliminary results, the situation has stabilized, the ups and downs are expected, and the balance of power remains the same. Thus, the LSR group, as reported by "Fontanka" Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Board Alexander Vakhmistrov LSR, built and commissioned the 285 000 square meters of housing - as a developer, not including real estate, built by the Holding BSC., Sent to customers 233 000 square meters in the mass segment and 29 000 in the elite. Holding "LenSpetsSMU" passed in 2010, 213 000 "squares" of real estate, of which - 165 000 residential. But "five" leaders left LEK - indicators of the company's more than modest - 35 thousand square meters (3 homes in the mass segment, and one - in Malaya Monetnaya, 2 - in the elite). The success of 2009, when it was put into operation about 200 thousand meters, the company was unable to repeat. It is curious that at the beginning of 2010 the head of LEKa Pavel Andreev said that the company intends to build within a year as much as last year, and finally deliver the long-suffering housing complex "Imperial," which remains the last two years on the stage of "finishing." Some market participants perceive the status quo as a threat to monopolize the industry. According to Lev Kaplan, vice president and director of "Soyuzpetrostroya", the share of large companies account for about 80% of housing under construction. "Now the average company erected about 20% of the homes, though a few years ago, they accounted for more than 45 percent," - commented Honored Builder of Russia. The reasons for such a "bias," he said almost inaccessible to small and medium businesses to market land, impossibly high rent (up to 40% before the start of construction), "capture" the market of construction materials and building several large holdings. Kaplan sure that small and medium business in St. Petersburg almost dies. Moreover, it seems that to some extent his position is shared by the authorities - in early February, the city governor Valentina Matvienko plans to hold a meeting on increasing competition in the construction business. Carry your money, the price increases again Petrostat results are encouraging data - statistics, real incomes of the population in January-October 2010 in St. Petersburg increased by 16.7% compared with January-October 2009. And it is improving living standards, analysts and market participants attributed the increasing sales activity. According to ARIN, the volume of home sales back to pre-crisis level - in 2010, has sold nearly 2 million square meters: 30% more than in the most difficult for the market year of 2009. Similar figures result in a holding company and "LenSpetsSMU." The holding RBI noted that the situation has improved not only in the mass segment, the market once again begun to actively build and luxury housing - the number of square feet of new "premium squares" increased by 88% compared to 2009 year. Higher prices for real estate notes, all the experts, however, differ slightly in the data. In the ARIN reported that the growth started in the 4th quarter of 2010, and for three months house prices "soared" to 8.5% for the whole year prices have risen by 15% (in this case since the crisis began, they fell an average of 14% - 22% cheaper housing model, 20% - business class, 12% - the elite), so the actual increase is less than 1%. Now, according to ARIN, the average price per square meter in the primary market - 81.2 thousand. In "LenSpetsSMU" give slightly different numbers. "Prices fluctuated throughout the year in the range of 1-2%, and for the year prices have dropped by 4%" - analysts say the company. The average price per square meter is called the 72.3 thousand rubles for the primary real estate and 82 000 for the secondary. According to experts the Academy "Bekar," the average cost of housing in the primary market in 2010 amounted to approximately 68-70 thousand rubles for "square" and the prices did not exceed 4%. The rise of market players have experienced in March, when there was an increase in the number of transactions. And in each district of the city had its own dynamics of change in value. Leader in the rate of price change in 2010 was the Kalinin district, where they have fallen almost 20%. Experts Academy "Bekar" explain this by saying that the building in an area almost non-existent, the market went flat in the homes under construction at zero facing a lot cheaper than in houses where built at least a "box". The jump in average price indicators noted in the Moscow region, where for a year, they increased by about 10%. The average price tag has grown due to the fact that in this part of town about a wide range of facilities that are in the final stage - for example, "Pulkovo Posad," "Dominant", a residential complex on Gagarin, 14. There is a construction raznovysotnogo complex "Antaeus" and set "Count Orlov" (although the latter belongs to the category of "problem" - the term of his delivery is tolerated). In other areas of the city or spikes or sharp declines can not be. Analysts predict that the demand for property will continue, and prices will rise. In the ARIN suggest that the cost of the "square" will rise in 2011 to 10-15% in "LenSpetsSMU" claim more gently: "The prices will be stable, there may be only slight seasonal variations in the range of annual inflation." In the RBI is called a growth of 10-15% for the mass segment of the housing and 5-10% - for the elite. Realtors appreciate the situation is not so optimistic. "If we take inflation into account, which amounted to about 8-9% per year, then we can talk about price cuts", - said Yuri Vorobyov, director of the Petrograd branch of corporation "Adveks. Real Estate. " "The amount of funds in the market decreased by 30-40%", - says Pavel Sozinov, chairman of the Northwest Chamber of Real Estate. However, vendors also see no reason to lower prices. So how do we sell? The financial results of most companies still do not disappoint. The holding "LenSpetsSMU" reported that in 2010 the buyers received about 12 billion rubles. LSR until opened only physical indicators - with retail buyers, contracts for priobretenie104 thousand square meters in the mass segment, and 35 thousand - in the elite. The head of the holding LEK Pavel Andreev said that in 2010 the company was sold to housing, "a 38% increase in numbers and 45% in terms of money" than in 2009. According to "Fontanka", in 2010 the company sold 744 apartments LEK different area of around 2.5 billion rubles. Approximately half of the contract was concluded with one hundred percent in advance, so from customers LEKu was given a little more than one billion rubles - in this case was put into operation, as already mentioned, only 35 thousand square meters. Experts say the Russian construction market is far from transparent. "In those cases, if a company is not open, to determine the actual sales can not - you have to believe the participants on the floor or use indirect indicators - says Leonid Sandalov, Deputy. Director General of the Academy "Bekar." - Usually, sales volume is related to the proposal - very few people still in the building if he had remained unsold meters. " "But this is a very conventional figure, because the proposal may be a double sale, and apartments in protracted protracted and obvious illiquid" - he adds. Apartments for any budget The most popular market segment is mass demand. The primary sales of flats (91%) are in large demand housing. "It takes a major share of the class" economy "- 58% of the classes" comfort "and" Comfort + "for 33% - said Zosia Zakharov, head of projects and analytical studies ARIN. - The remaining 9% are high-end segment - the "business" and "elite." However, the proposal in this segment is not quite meet the needs of the market. "The massive housing accounted for 79% of all apartments for sale - says Zakharov. - It takes more than half of the class of "comfort." In the future, the share will be redistributed by increasing class "economy", which is most actively entering the market. " Recall that in 2010 started just three major integrated development project - "Seven Capitals", "North Valley" and "New Okkervil", all of them are focused precisely on the massive demand. Increased activity among buyers and luxury housing. According to experts Penny Lane Realty Saint Petersburg, interest in buying residential property in 2010, finally went into effective demand. Up to 90% of transactions in 2010 were made with apartments for residence customers. "Hence the increased demands on the quality characteristics of the apartment, - says Pavel Pikalev, director of Penny Lane Realty Saint Petersburg. - The most important features when buying apartments the high price segment now considered underground parking, enclosed, protected area, functional layout and high-quality engineering. " And in this segment of buyers prefer to buy apartments in buildings already commissioned. So far, according to experts, the real consumer demand is still focused on the secondary market deals worth up to 150 rubles per square meter. In Penny Lane Realty called several landmark sales in 2010 - Duplex apartment of 330 square meters of the water on Krestovsky was bought for 60 million rubles, an apartment in "Mont Blanc" an area of 150 square meters - over 16 million apartment in the Petrograd district area of 180 square meters with a terrace of 40 "squares" - 25 million. Experts' forecasts are optimistic. The situation with the prices for premium real estate in St. Petersburg, under forecasts of Penny Lane Realty, in 2011, will be stable. In the secondary market could increase to 5% in the most liquid objects in the primary - on average, in the same range, but will depend on the size of the portfolio of the developer and the construction stage. As regards quantitative indicators of transactions, then they have to a large extent will influence seasonality. Market participants also intend to extend the offer in the segment of luxury housing. So, company "Renaissance" has opened the sale at once at 3 sites - "Venice" on the Petrograd side, in the first stage of "Smolny quarter," and in the second stage of "Front Block", "frozen" in time of crisis. In the RBI in 2011 to begin construction of luxury residential homes in Great Posad.
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