Scenarios for the real estate market in 2011

At the end of the year we traditionally summing up the year and make plans and projections for next year. In 2010, there have been significant developments for the real estate market, the consequences are manifest not only at the end of 2010, but will continue to affect the future in 2011. The fact that what surprises will the real estate market in 2011 and how to act for those who want to acquire new housing, experts told the Moscow Business Club - the leading market analysts and leaders of the largest real estate companies: Alexander Khrustalev, CEO of "NDV-property" ; Krapina Alexander, Director General of Research Agency RWAY; Igor Pinkevich, Chairman of the Board Group "Nastya", Yuri Khlestakov, CEO, the company "Russian House of Real Estate", Alex Demyanchuk, Managing Director, "The first building trust," Vladislav Lutskov, Director-General , "Analytical and Consulting Center Miel"; Vladlen Voloshin, Director General, "Veles Capital Development"; Pypin Alexander, Head of Research Center "GdeEtotDom.Ru." Discussion of 2010. In assessing the most important economic and political events of the year, which affected the property market, most experts have called down the capital's mayor, Yuri Luzhkov, after 18-year term and appoint a new Mayor. "Perhaps, all market participants will be called one of the main political events of this year replaced the mayor of Moscow. However, the background of general political stability in Russia, I do not expect significant effects on the real estate market from a given permutation, "says Igor Pinkevich. Agrees with him, Yuri Khlestakov, while Yuri notes that the policy of the city becomes more "federal". Alex Demyanchuk also noted that across the country in the political aspect of significant upheaval, fortunately, did not occur. As for the Moscow mayor's resignation, of course, affect the construction sector, but it will be seen only likely next year. Alexander speckled, continuing the theme, describes some of the federal initiative of the Moscow mayor's office, which in his opinion, directly affect the real estate market - it is canceling some of the decisions of the City Administration to transfer the old number of facilities affiliated with the market her business structures, revising certain provisions of the General Plan of the capital , cut into 3-4 times must be agreed initial permits and finding ways to solve transportation problems. In this case, Mr. Krapina notes that the initiatives of the new members of the Administration of the Moscow metropolitan real estate market can experience only in the middle of the first quarter of 2011, this is due to the fact that only the formation of a new team the mayor last 3-4 months, that is, almost by February next year . Alexander Khrustalev, head of the company's market leader in buildings, commented shift of power in Moscow - "of course, a change of government in Moscow has caused many real estate market participants to act with greater caution, many as far as I know, waiting for the policy of the new government will be more clearly outlined" . Also, Alexander noted that "the economy is recovering - it certainly has been a major trend for developers in 2010. Many construction resumed, and the construction was carried out even more rapid pace than before the crisis. " Another important trend in 2010, which he called Mr. Khrustalev was deterioration in the terms of bank deposits. This became a turning point for private investors, who returned to the market buildings. Vladlen Voloshin opinion coincides with Mr. Khrustalev, in addition to a change in leadership of the Administration of Moscow, he also notes the stabilization of the real estate market, adding the fact that tighter 214-FZ of the schema objects of sales to individuals. Demand, purchasing power, the number of transactions and the new facilities the property market analyzing the demand and purchasing power of the real estate market in 2010, experts' opinions were divided. So Vladlen Voloshin gave lower estimates of the demand and purchasing power of the real estate market in 2010, noting that demand was active only economy-class real estate and facilities, because of the crisis has shifted from business to economy class, as well as plots without a contract. Alexander Khrustalev, however, very pleased with the results of the year: "2010 was distinguished by increased consumer demand for real estate, and this demand was stable and did not have a highly visible seasonality, we are receiving an average of about 10 000 calls per month, and 6000 -7000 calls Saint-Petersburg. Purchasing power is definitely increased. Proof of this is the fact that many of our facilities by virtue of a higher degree of readiness to increased prices and the monthly number of transactions it has remained the same. " 2010 sees a positive Igor Pinkevich. "Of course, our group so far only one project, albeit a very big project in a segment-class comfort - this neighborhood Tsarina, but judging by the high sales volumes, the situation is quite successful," said Mr. Pinkevich. This confirms the same trend, "Analytical and Consulting Center Miel," according to their data, in the first half of 2010 the number of transactions in the market of new trades exceeded the number of Q4 2009, with the price level in 2010 has not changed significantly, and the market came new construction projects, such as the number of new challenges objects that appear within 3 quarters of 2010 is 24% higher than the number in the corresponding period of 2009. Vladlen Voloshin added that in 2010 the number of projects the company "Veles Capital" in the active phase of implementation has increased by 70% compared with 2009. Alexander and Yuri Khrustalev Khlestakov estimated increase in the number of projects under construction in 2010 by 30-40%, and the experts specify that here takes into account not only the new objects and projects, whose construction was resumed in 2010. Alex Demyanchuk believes that significant demand throughout the year had an uptrend, thereby increasing the average cost of selling objects. Alexander Pypin notes the trend of the market in 2010 the Moscow secondary market - high business activity, which resulted in a high number of transactions is higher than not only in times of crisis, but also the pre-crisis years. The trend has the potential to continue in 2011. Regarding the entry of new developers, Alexander believes that developers are now facing the difficult choice of time points and entry into the market, due to the fact that no known policy of the new leadership of the city in urban planning. For example, no clear future policy for the reconstruction of old areas of housing, making it difficult to determine the profitability and risks of buying apartments in the houses' being demolished. " No less intriguing and make possible prospective changes in the market turnover of land in the city, order the preparation of communications for the construction of the order of social contributions the city. "Perhaps, in the likeness of a number of cities, reduce the burden on builders, which will lead to the end of 2011 to enter the market in the zero stage of new projects with record-low initial cost of sales, and thus high returns for investors. Perhaps, on the contrary, the burden on builders and increase, respectively, today's prices for projects in "early stage" and will be the lowest, "concludes Alexander Pypin. The most successful projects and new services in 2010 Evaluate the success stories and initiatives are always useful, it gives food to the mind, promotes creativity and forms the groundwork of their own successful projects. So here's what the players said the real estate market. Vladlen Voloshin called the most successful project "Veles Capital" implementation of 78th and 80th quarter of townhouses LCD "Potapovo" SWAD in Moscow and increase profitability ratios of the first stage of shopping and entertainment complex "Park" in Krasnogorsk and running construction of the second, an area of ​​22 sq m. Especially Vladlen would mark the beginning of the transfer of the projects of AG «Capital Interra" in control "Veles Capital Development" and start a new investlinii for the elimination of land assets with real estate development. Alexander Khrustalev talking about the most successful projects of "NDV-property" described in the first place, the implementation of district "Tsarina", which entered the market with a record-low price sq.m. -68 Thousand rub. and became the leader in sales, today we also managed to keep its leading position, despite the fact that the minimum cost sq.m. was already 76 thousand rubles. Alexander paid tribute to the developer, a group of companies "Nastya," noting that the company has developed a great concept. Describing the benefits of the project that are not in similar projects and economy-class comfort, Igor Pinkevich called monolithic building with high quality veneer, underground parking and individually-standing garage, a rich social infrastructure - kindergartens, schools, clinics, FLC with a swimming pool, shopping mall. Of course, of great importance neighborhood convenient location - opposite the Tsaritsyn Park, next to Biruliovsky arboretum. The new service named Igor Pinkevich service - high quality finishes that buyers dubbed "evroremonotom." Alex Demyanchuk notes that the most successful project of the First Trust Building and the character of this year, has rightly become Train "Chocolate", which since January has grown from the foundation to complete the finished building, and in December will have to give the state commission. "Chocolate" is a 22-storey monolith uh house luxury, it is advantageous in the current building stands out for its original architectural and engineering solutions. With regard to services of the First Trust Building, in 2010 we took another step towards our clients and run customer support, rasskazyvet Mr. Demyanchuk. Potential or already a customer can get the necessary information in any convenient way - leaving the application site "First of building trust," by sending a letter or phone. Not later than one day for each request will be made operational comment. Many of our clients have already benefited from this service and expressed appreciation to the staff of the company. If we talk about the new development horizons, then here, "PST" aims to anticipate consumer demand, offering customers the first project in the Russian market in the form of holiday apartments "turnkey" - apartments in residential complex "Sea Symphony" Sochi. With regard to new services NDV-property, then this can be considered a breakthrough service trade-in - «rapid offset of the old apartment to a new building," and a joint project with "ROSNO", through which now fear not only of the transaction on the secondary housing market, but and financial risks of buyers of new buildings. Yuri called Khlestakov main innovative service introduced by the company "Russian House of Real Estate" - service "Examination of buildings", by which any customer can order an official examination and get all the reliable information from the source and the supervisory authority. Formal assessment will contain information about the construction of any facility in Moscow, as well as any changes in ispolenii investment contracts and technical documentation. With this service you can determine the status and reliability of the developer under construction before buying an apartment and get a formal expert opinion. Real estate company "Russian House Property 'is accredited as an expert in housing projects under the Government of Moscow. Scenarios for 2011: Trends and Forecasts Vladlen Voloshin sure that the positive tendencies inherent in the year 2010 will develop. First of all, grow wealth, and with it - the demand for real estate, he said. "The demand for plots without a contract will continue to grow at a slower pace, while growth in demand for ready-made house will increase. Change priority areas will become more apparent that the effect on price growth, which is aggravated by the choice of proposals in 2010 and its reduction due to freeze construction of new settlements during and after the crisis. I think that the ruble will not change, but the New Riga will grow on average by 15% in ready communities. The remaining areas will be actively built up, not increasing in price, but forming a stable demand (Kaluga, Minsk). Prices for urban housing will be indexed within inflation. Commercial real estate "breathe" more freely. The volume of vacant space will continue to decline. Index the rates in the 10-15%, "adds the expert. "I think we will see a small monthly increase in prices per square meter. Of course, not as rapidly as before the crisis, but the cost per square meter will rise, "said Alexander Khrustalev. Trends by segment allocated as follows: in the suburban real estate, which, despite the abundance of new proposals in 2010, experienced a downturn, I think, nothing will change. Yet rural property because of transport problems in the region has always been regarded as a second home, so at the time of crisis, these objects have shown the most significant drop, and therefore discredited in the eyes of private investors. Commercial real estate, Mr. Khrustalev would believe the tendency for increasing the number of proposals for the offices of Class B and B +, because in these segments, there is a shortage of office space. Luxury real estate has shown a fairly rapid recovery and the number of transactions and prices. Post-crisis restructuring of this area is not over, I think in 2011 we will see here and new players and new rules, he said. I think the market will show moderate growth, both in terms of consumer activity, and relative cost per square meter, adds Igor Pinkevich. Alex Demyanchuk believes that the outlook for demand and volume of transactions will undoubtedly be positive. We assume that the level of transactions will increase by approximately 30-40%, as will the so-called "deferred demand". Must play its role in restoring the activity of banks in the construction and expansion of mortgage programs. If we talk about the price of a meter, the rabid growth, both in the pre-crisis period 2006-2008, is not expected. We will see a small monthly increase in the value m, slightly higher than inflation. What segments of the market swings, says Alex Demyanchuk, we expect the following trends. In the suburban real estate most popular with customers will be conceptual villages with autonomous infrastructure at a small distance from Moscow. Sales will grow from those developers who offer facilities with a fully finished communications. In the field of real estate clearly a bundle. "Psevdoelitnoe" housing will remain at the same level and will go up in accordance with the general increase in property prices. A niche in a truly high-end housing there is a deficit, and suggestions. By mid-2011 we expect to run several high-profile and sought-after projects, the cost of which will likely be unprecedented, even for Moscow. "According to our feelings against the restoration and revitalization of the Russian economy is likely to end the year at the regular price growth market in Moscow in the amount of 5% -7%. And the fact that after years of decline activity of potential buyers returned to the spring performance is likely in the near future will revive the market and will be accompanied by the reduction of housing in the open offer, "gives his forecast Vladislav Lutskov. Alexander speckled, on the contrary believes that with high probability the price of housing in the capital will slowly decline in local currency due to continue at least the acute phase of the crisis and reduce the solvency of households. That is, the market will experience multiple W-script the behavior of prices. At the same time, professional market participants will periodically initiate a price increase proposals for housing, but these attempts are less successful. The cost of meters 2011 Our experts give their predictions on the cost of meters in the sector of economy and business class in 2011. So, how much will it cost sq.m. Vladlen Voloshin gave the following prediction value sq.m.: 50-90 thousand rubles. per sq m in the suburbs, from 100 000 rubles. for the quarter. m - Economy in Moscow, and business - from 150 000 rubles. per square meter.