Capital market housing has developed an extraordinary situation. The crisis ends, the oil at a good price, supply of new buildings on the market fell sharply. Everything suggests that the prices are about to take off, as the hundred-meter race. And they are hardly "climb" on a vertical wall. What is it, and how long this will last? Strange to say country is obviously out of the crisis. In fact, nobody has said that it is complete. But everyone is talking about it already in the past tense. In any case, we can confidently assert that the acute phase of his past. This is evidenced by the current dynamics of macroeconomic indicators in the first place, the growth of gross domestic product, and Forecasts for the foreseeable future. Mortgage terms almost completely caught up to pre-crisis. And even unpleasant inflation but not limited to grown-up shows a revival of demand. Simultaneously, the minerals - the source of well-being of our country - again in price. The present value of the proverbial barrel of oil in exactly the same level as in March 2008. However, all other economic parameters, one way or another connected with the cost of housing, look as if tracing sketched exactly three years ago. Everything else should be added that in comparison with the pre-crisis period significantly reduced the volume of commercial housing as across the country, and Moscow in particular. And with this influx of new buildings fell to the market. Under the influence of the situation from the beginning of autumn professionals are looking forward to revitalizing the real estate market and the new acceleration of prices. Aloud, the more loudly about this little one said. Expert assessments sounded cautiously and with restraint. However, in the air - "now-a-ka ak jerk." Already, at least, this possibility no one categorically denied. However, the reality is much more modest. In March 2008 according to the agency IRN square in the capital worth $ 5,250, but now "only" $ 4717. But even more important than another. Then the growth rate of prices was such that by the end of the summer (just over 6 months), they reached $ 6100. Now close and there is nothing like it. Prices limply pulled up, barely able to keep pace with inflation. For eighteen months with a minimum level, they gradually increased to 18% (the percentage of a month). The question is, what is currently on the market something that was three years ago and is now tempered by growth in housing prices? And so how long will it last? The precipitate was start with the fact that professional market participants noted a change in mental background against which the market operates. Uncertainty, a sense of fear and tension, sunken into the souls of many citizens in times of crisis, gradually subside, but not disappeared completely. Purchasing decisions are taken more cautiously. Despite the liberalization of the mortgage, the former light-heartedness with which the citizens were taken, and the banks give loans no more. Someone decided to postpone the purchase, and possibly create a personal "safety cushion" in other forms. Belief in a rock-solid reliability investments in real estate is not something that has been shaken, but subject to reconsideration. In addition to the moral need to take into account the purely material factors. The sharp rise in the price of food (buckwheat has risen almost three times!), Another significant increase in payments for utilities weakly stimulate thinking about better living conditions and forced to think more about their daily bread. Perhaps, Russia is beginning to affect specificity, consisting in a huge bundle of the population in terms of material well-being. When there is a smooth distribution of citizens' income when there is a gradual transition from wealth to poverty, then there is a significant number of "middling", which would be replenished pool of potential buyers. Perhaps the moment comes when, roughly speaking, those who have money, he had already bought an apartment, and other customers to take up nowhere. The Director-General of the analytical agency RWAY Alexander Krapina the main constraint is the price factor considers the existing low purchasing power of households and expectations regarding future developments in the Russian economy. The acute phase actually passed, but that does not mean that the crisis is over. The consequences, in his opinion, will be felt for several years, including the housing market primarily economic class. "Rosstat captures the formal increase in family income, which is associated with an increase in public sector wages and pensions. But do not state employees and retirees form the underlying demand for housing. But for small businesses, middle-class in Russia crisis hit hard, increased tax burden, many companies can not withstand such pressure. We demand placing the most well-off households. This is the first 10-15% of the population by income level, no more "- explains the analyst. Up to the contrary as to the reasons hampering the growth of today in housing prices, paradoxical, but a nice idea suggested Head of Research Center IRN Oleg Repchenko. It is generally accepted that high oil prices are leading our country to strengthen the housing market and higher prices of real estate. But under present conditions, the analyst, "high" oil can knock properties, rather than help her. The reason he sees in the fact that oil revenues have often taken over by the state severance tax and the rest is absorbed by, and if the officials and the business, then in a very narrow stratum. Waste recipients of this income are more social in nature do not - buy a house for himself, and investment. Those who are "sitting" on the tube and more often in London than in Moscow, receiving its income, it is unlikely that money will be included in the Moscow apartment. But ordinary citizens who actually bought the Moscow housing, from high oil prices have nothing. They are only grown up costs. Because of high oil prices immediately raise prices for gasoline and other fuels. This is explicitly or implicitly affects everyone. You go into a store and see that the yogurt has risen in price, because it now becomes more expensive to bring. Accordingly, the income of all real estate buyers are the same, expenses increase, the share of the money they were willing to pay for the purchase of apartments in the form of savings or costs for a mortgage, narrow. It turns out that the amount of money that goes to the real estate market due to high oil prices decreased, not increased. Note "optimism" in the assessment of the situation made the first deputy general director of "DSK-1" Andrew Pankouski. He agreed that the price is really only a "scramble", but specific constraints can not see. All the matter in the absence of excessive demand for housing investors (referring to the lack of investment purchases in the market). A large number of transactions and the insane growth dynamics of prices in early 2008, similar to a builder, were caused not by supply and demand the end customer, but to a much greater degree of investment attractiveness of a home purchase. Everyone thought that today would buy housing for 10 million rubles, and tomorrow will sell for 12 million rubles. It was a huge amount of investment purchases with resale to the final consumer. Including wholesale purchases. Today, wholesale deals and investor for wholesale buying a home there. Now we are talking mostly about the end customer directly. Therefore, the demand today is very limited. However, it is not clear, because if an investor bought today, but let's say, tomorrow has sold, it means that investment purchases equally increased both demand and supply. The relationship between them does not change how much was bought, and sold so much, is not it? The fact of the matter that is not sold, said Andrew Pankouski. A huge amount of housing purchased to legal entities and citizens, "hung" in the air. That is really a process initially developed on the principle bought - sold, then bought again and again sold, then bought again ... and not sold. Process was interrupted by the crisis. Investors today from the wholesale purchase of houses are gone. There is no single wholesale buyer. At the same time offer a prior housing still remains. With regard to how long the shelter, located in zagashnikah investors may keep the prices on the market, Andrew Pankouski said: "I believe that in fact today in Moscow there is no new supply of new buildings, or it is extremely scant. I mean affordable housing proposals economy class. Therefore, I believe that next year will be a fairly strong growth (of prices). " And that, perhaps, and explode.
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