Monday, November 14, 2011

Plots without a contract: cake mix, or the Russian "know-how." Prospects for the development of the segment.

Plots without a contract have entered the market en masse in the spring of 2009 among the key reasons for the expansion proposals are the following: - o deliberate expansion proposals by developers in response to the intensifying demand for holiday items that do not require large initial investments with the possibility of further separation costs for an indefinite time - a conclusion without a contract settlements - o «reformatting» of the village, retired to the market earlier in the plots without a contract - the reason for the need for operational funding for the project, the response to the crisis - o «cutting" of land into individual plots and their implementation on the market - the reaction the crisis of non-core investors, "the developers on the occasion of" In the crisis peak in 2009 when new projects came to market in March-June, when the developers announced about 45 settlements, 40 of them - without a contract. Almost all of them were the master plan are drawn from the field and numerous promises. According to our estimates, about 35 of them - economy class settlements. By the end of 2009, the market offered 277 villages, new arrivals almost entirely (80%) were the plots without a contract economy class. The main area of ​​concentration offers in this category - the eastern and southern directions. Currently available on the market about 366 villages. In many ways, from the proceeds of 2009 and spring of 2010 about half of the current proposal - plots without a contract, and not less than 80% of them are classified as economic. Now without a contract offer sites widely than ever before. Objects are presented to suit every budget and with a wide range of characteristics: the size of plots, the presence of water, forests, stage of readiness (for the year as part of the projects actually were working to build infrastructure, summing up the communications, etc.), degree of development and etc. However, the dynamic changes in consumer preferences makes itself known right now and the proposal does not remain indifferent to this. According to our projections in 2011 villages in areas without a contract will lose at least 5-10% of the proposals. Unlike 2009, when a proposal is almost completely filled up the touchstone without a contract, in 2011 the picture will be completely polar: not less than 70-80% of the proceeds will consist of the townships with a contract and prefabricated houses. What buyers are looking for, acquiring plots without a contract? Criteria and motivators. On the example of European countries, a clear tendency to a predominance of ready-made, decorated and furnished homes, even as the most sought after format. Proposal of settlements with areas without a contract is not typical for markets that have reached maturity. In Russia, the peak mass acquisitions of plots without a contract in the segment of economy, it fell in 2009 Motives for buyers, characterized by a crisis time: • Minimum purchase budget • Unstable economic situation, the desire to "stake out" a place for the future • Lack of experience in the construction and evaluation of all future costs Result: high demand. In the village Solonovka company "Volga Villas", located 170 kilometers from Moscow, the first half of 2009 sold 80% of the sites, while the pre-crisis scenario implementation was designed for 3 years. In 2010, consumer behavior has changed dramatically: • Land purchased for direct end buyers stay • The buyer is not ready to acquire land in the open field: the development of the project should be obvious when you visit the site • The buyer is not prepared to wait for years: the majority of buyers in 2010 going to explore areas in the next season • Buyers are beginning to elaborate the project and selection of a contractor in the shortest possible time after the acquisition of land in 2009, about 80% of transactions in the market ZN - was the deal with areas without a contract. It is expected that by the end of 2010, this figure drops to 10%, and in 2011 the prevalence of such transactions on shopping sites with a contract and prefabricated houses will be minimal. Audience settlements with areas without a contract described by two non-comparable in size categories: • Families with a combined income of about 100 thousand rubles. a month. Of about 80% of total customers. Preferences for location of the acquired land is almost entirely dependent on budget shopping, talking about the distance from Moscow. With respect to the direction of detected nearly 100% tnaya binding to the region of Moscow, where the family resides. • Families with incomes above 400 thousand per month, not motivated by low initial investment, and the ability to create your own vacation home from start to finish. Of about 15%. During the period of excessive demand in 2009, the first category has prevailed, the second - was represented by one-off transactions. This year, the high-income groups expressed much more clearly. In this regard, special attention should be paid without a contract settlements, characterized by the presence of unconditional attractors: a large water known recreational areas, nature reserves, the unique topography. The demand for such settlements to continue in the future, regardless of the declining trend in this segment. In the medium term, yesterday's buyers plots without a contract (mass product) is gradually reoriented not just for homes with a contract, and the finished structure with a minimum of occupancy. The most liquid are the proposals with the following parameters: • Enclosed grounds 8.10 acres • A single-storey house with an attic and a terrace, with a total area of ​​about 100-120 meters • Material of construction is not basic • The site is equipped with a borehole is 2-3 at home and septic tanks • The house is wired electricity, the filter is installed, heating equipment • In the village are equipped with several recreational (sports and children's) area, the village is under the clock security. The budget of such purchase shall not exceed 3.5 million rubles. Now this same category acquires sites cost from 300 thousand to 1 million. rub. with deferred payment and collection of communications infrastructure in the form of the settlement. These deferred payments are generally ranging from 200 to 600 thousand Rs. Such proposals are now actively come to market in the traditional areas of economy class: Simferopol, Novoryazanskoe, Yaroslavl highway. The potential of this segment is extremely high. But for real, profitable for the developer activity in this segment can only be due to economies of scale and standardization proposals. In fact, such projects - similar panel multistory building in Moscow: a massive, rapidly erected, relatively cheap, but at the same time sufficient quality and reliable product with no frills. "Demand is slowly but steadily shifting from the dominant poluinvestitsionnyh shopping to shopping, due to the actual consumer motives. - Said Alexei Kudryavtsev, Marketing Director of the Management Company "Volga give." - The tendency of increasing interest in the countryside sites, ready for immediate development (ie, houses) on the face. Already, it is clearly seen from the behavior of buyers plots without a contract, "Sure, the Russian mentality and traditions exert some influence, but it is likely that within 2-3 years, the Russian countryside real estate market will come to a similar practice. Remains hopeful that the current level of technology development and construction of an emerging trend involving independent technical expertise, will not see the light of new low-quality "stamped" in Khruschevkas countryside. Plots without a contract will retain the role of locomotive suburban real estate market in the medium term, but the growth of professionalism and customer does not wish to delay country rest on a vague term are clearly visible now.

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