All the summer the price of the property market virtually marked time. This is partly explained by the traditional "seasonal" lull - buyers and sellers are on leave, the housing problem has been postponed. However, the fall begins the "business" season, the people returned to Moscow real estate market has traditionally come to life. Then what awaits us? In the summer, "inviolability" of prices on the Moscow housing in addition to the holiday season are more profound reasons. The real estate market affects many factors, and some of them pulls up prices, and some - down. Which of them are outweighed, and there prices are going. For a long time, they are equilibrated with each other. For example, rising in price as oil seems to push prices up (judging from the simple logic that the oil companies bought up the Moscow apartment). However, apartment prices for oil dynamics did not respond. Because there is such a thing as a limited effective demand, here it is a real estate growth does not start. A simple, no "oil" and "gas" buyer (and there are people in the market is always more), is interested in housing "no frills" special money. Thus, our real estate market for a long time (not just in summer but in the year to this point) as follows: the price though and reacted to inflation, playing it, but a special commitment to the growth did not show. According to the magazine www.metrinfo, ruble prices hung in the 132-142 thousand rubles for "square» http://www.kurs.metrinfo/graph/ exception was the segment of economy-quality buildings, where some growth was observed for the following reasons: First, it is in principle a bit, the choice of the buyer is small and, therefore, that is - is in demand. Second, the new buildings tend to rise in price as they become available: already constructed object is always more under construction. And we have been used to market the quiet, smooth surface so God's grace, if it were not bearing down upon us the dark shadow of the next crisis. United States of America because of the huge debt the country has been lowered credit rating: the rating agency Standart & Poor's a flat country only by one point. But it was enough to make the financial markets panic. Recall that a week ago because of the collapse of the ruble came a "technical failure" in the pricing of Moscow real estate: a square meter has increased in value overnight to 7500 rubles! Foreign exchange rates stood still. Clearly, this is not a flat went up, and the ruble collapsed, it shows that our indicator, though the nerves are like horse racing. In what currency do you want to expose flat for sale in such a swing? However, it is possible that the next wave of market will not go and will be limited drawdown of the main macroeconomic indicators. What will happen then? Then, according to experts of the analytical center "Indicators of housing market", many private investors' zavyazhut "with games in the stock market will go and buy an apartment. As a result, experts say, could increase housing prices. Moreover, it could get worse with all sorts of pre-election attitudes and expectations, and by the spring of 2012 we will see that prices have returned to pre-crisis level. This in our history (perebeganie investors from the stock market in the housing market plus electoral affairs) has been - in 2008, while prices have risen by 20-25%. It is possible the repetition of the story. But it is - one of the possible scenarios predicted by professionals. And what people think? Traditionally on the eve of the fall we are interested in people's outlook, which conduct polls and Muscovites. Note: We do not require people to look far into the future and ask only whether to increase prices in Moscow in autumn this year. As you can see from the chart below: - 69.3% of Muscovites believe that prices will rise - 29.7% believe that they will stand on the spot - 1% believe that prices will go down. Survey participants told us their predictions. The largest group, which was attended by two-thirds of respondents (69.3%), which believes that prices will rise, as always, there are people, secure in the knowledge that our country has all the goods and services are only getting more expensive and will never become cheaper: "Yes, we all grow," "hedgehog, it is clear that increasing every day," "what you are asking, well, of course, they always grow," "grow regardless of the situation," "we do not become cheaper," "never heard that they were down. " Part of this group confirmed his thesis observation of life. With the increase in prices per square meter, they are already facing directly, or work as real estate or construction, or try to sell or buy an apartment. Other participants tried to understand the causes of the phenomenon. So, they connect further price increases with the expansion of the borders of Moscow. People have heard that house prices on potential areas of Moscow are growing, and they are projecting this process not only in Moscow but also in the capital. Another reason for rising prices - the housing shortage, which sold out in most wealthy travelers. Little shelter, according to citizens, especially because the builders are holding a special apartment. The next "attack", because of which the square footage destined to rise in price - inflation. Do not forget the citizens and the potential crisis that could reach out to us from America and Europe. In the next group, which believes that prices will stay in place (29.7%), did not see the prerequisites to higher prices, but believe that they will not fall. Some respondents in this group believe that a possible price increase will be offset by the construction, including the new territories of Moscow. In addition, people think that the price rising, and so after the crisis and have already reached their maximum values, and therefore will no longer grow. Very close to this thesis from the category of classic remark - and the prices so high, they have nowhere to grow - which we also had to hear from the respondents. Finally, in the smallest group, which believes that prices will fall (1%), talked about a new crisis that would bring down prices on everything you can. (Here we see a classic example of when people do the opposite conclusion, based on a thesis. So, the crisis has traditionally been the cause and growth, and falling prices. This shows the ambiguity of the influence of this factor, which is quite untrue. Then we were asked only of those who believes that prices will rise - figured out how much interest they believe will rise in the price of real estate. The most common answer was two: - 5% - 5-10%. In fact, this growth comparable to the rate of inflation, so that no sverhudivitelnyh events in the real estate market people do not expect. Conclusion: Our people are well oriented in the factors that affect the real estate market. They were named top - lack of affordable housing, inflation, developments in world markets. Nearly two-thirds of Muscovites are predicting price increases are likely in the range or slightly above inflation. In principle, it is quiet and mild weather, which often give a professional and market analysts, if not expected any disasters. So the people did not expect unchallenged. Well, I would like to make life not gone far from this prediction. www.metrinfo log data received from a telephone survey conducted on a representative sample. It allows people to reflect the opinion of an arbitrarily large cities and to sustain the relationship by age and sex of respondents, depending on of the population in the districts of Moscow. The survey involved residents of working age. More information about the sociological research on the real estate market.
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