Causes - Macroeconomic housing market in Russia demonstrates the growing concern. Do not stagnate, namely uncertainty. Prices actually frozen, but stability is difficult to call. The state of professional market participants can be compared with the position of the athlete who begins to run. But he ran to the curtain, which otdernetsya at the last moment, and then the athlete will see: Does he have to jump high, at length, in water with the board or even to run the marathon. Not a pleasant condition, right? Especially in the crowd such as starters. Russian Guild of Realtors (RGR) released yesterday, July 5, information note on the prices of housing in Russian cities in the first half of 2011 specialists of the analytical center "Indicators of housing market" compared with a similar summary document, which is distributed on the basis of RGR April ( compared to the end of I quarter. 2011). Prices on real estate market in some cities of Russia Russian Cities Average price proposals to the June 30 (Euro / m) increase relative to May 30 The average price of Proposition 30 April (Euro / m) increase relative to the March 31, Moscow 170 293 166 572 0.8% -1.3% Moscow region 70 289 71 044 -0.5% 1.6% St. Petersburg 85 982 84 737 0.0% 1.7% 48 854 Novosibirsk - 1.3% -1.3% 50 598 57 778 Ekaterinburg 0.4% 1.7% 57 076 48 447 Samara 1.8% 0.3% 47 133 43 829 Kazan 0.4% 43,576 1.5% Rostov-on-Don 54 253 51 773 2.0% 1.6% Perm 42 172 38 786 -0.4% 4.6% Krasnoyarsk 45 958 45 317 0.3% 1.2% 0.5 38 065 Voronezh % 38 043 1.8% Saratov 32 772 32 816 -2.8% 3.0% Togliatti 35 402 35 201 0.2% 0.0% Krasnodar 46 541 46 809 0.4% 1.0% 43 748 Yaroslavl 0.3% 0.1% 42 385 32 266 Ulyanovsk 0.0% 0.0% 32 324 54 395 Khabarovsk 1.8% -2.9% 53 853 42 807 Tula -0.7% 40 955 -4 6% of Kursk 30 923 30 366 1.4% 0.5% Tver 47 691 48 165 -0.1% 2.8% Belgorod 46 707 45 259 0.7% -0.2% 43 116 Vladimir 1.4% 40 340 -2.0% 53 375 Kaluga -1.6% 54,198 1.3% Source: Russian Guild of Realtors in the overall table (data from two - 30 June and 30 April) had analysts, some cities do not lead. Either the first or the second case, RGR did not find comparable data on them. But if prices in Barnaul or Dimitrovgrad, Lipetsk is not so much affect the overall picture in Russia, the lack of comparable data on Nizhny Novgorod, Omsk, Tyumen, and some others - seems odd. However, RGR stipulates that "in other cities or inaccurate information due to lack of data, or absent on the date of monitoring." But given RGR data sufficient to confirm the idea expressed by the head of the analytical center "Indicators of the real estate market," Oleg Repchenko in May and then in the June surveys of real estate market. The duality of the prevailing market situation depends not only on government policy, but primarily on macroeconomic factors. If the earlier policy of local authorities to allow or prevent the construction could practically dictate the behavior of prices, it now seems, macroeconomics, these functions takes over (see "The head of IRN: reducing the volume of construction will not affect the price level"). And although oil prices (doubling) still do not correlate with the prices of flats in Moscow (up to 10%), as well as in other regions (mainly variations within 2%), namely, general economic factors have a decisive influence on the effective demand for housing in Russia. This is confirmed by the conclusions of research and consulting department analysts "ABC Housing" - in Russia, "a monthly increase volume of proposals and the level of price increase slowed down continuously." These findings make it after analysts study the regional real estate market. "The market is in a stable condition. Any significant changes were recorded over several months, "- says Artyom Rzhavsky, head of consulting and analytics company" ABC Housing. " In fact, as pointed out www.irn, the market seems to exhaust the internal resources for growth (saturation of demand supply). There remain only the extraneous factors - the purchasing power, inflation and general condition of the world economy (see "Oil Painting": the global housing market remains stagnant. ") Dollar prices for apartments in Moscow virtually leveled by falling on the same 10% for the first half of the dollar against the ruble, a regional monthly growth / decline in prices volatile, although the minimum limits (see table "Prices of real estate market in some cities in Russia» .) As noted by previous month review of the property in May, is now almost equally as possible implementation of optimistic and pessimistic scenario for the real estate market of Moscow, Moscow Region and Russia. And the outcome will depend even on the events of the real estate market, but on the macro-economic vector. Back in the early autumn of 2008, the analytical center "Indicators of the real estate market," published an article with a bold title "The decline in construction in Moscow is no longer able to raise prices." This article was extremely helpful to read right now - the last three years have confirmed its central thesis: "The rule of" build less - higher prices, "Moscow does not work anymore!" Then, even before the crisis began in 2008, nobody could have predicted that the volume of construction in the capital will be reduced so much. As, however, few people believed that the Moscow real estate may fall in the price. But the fact is that the volume of construction in the capital three times lower than before the crisis, the volume of construction in the whole country - and a half times lower, and prices do not hurry to grow up to pre-crisis levels. And the reason is quite clear: real estate found itself in the limit of price elasticity, broke away from the real capacity to pay the bulk of the real buyers even if the mortgage. So even if you do not build, it will still be able to buy only one and it would be enough for the proposals of the secondary market. "Affordable housing" in this context interesting study published yesterday Alliance De Luxe «Rating housing affordability", based on data on cities. As a basis for calculating the index made the intention of the average inhabitant of a large city in Russia to buy a standard two-room apartment 40 sq.m. The average wage in each city was multiplied by 12 (number of months in a year) - and this amount was divided into the cost of "conventional kopeck piece" in the same city. As a result, analysts have the number of years it takes the average resident of the city for housing, provided that all of their income, he sent only to purchase real estate. With a huge margin in terms of housing is not available in the lead, as expected, Moscow and St Petersburg (about 13 and 10 years respectively). And not envy the people of the South Federal District - the two largest of its city (Volgograd and Rostov-on-Don) differ inadequate housing costs relative to the purchasing power of local residents (the index at the level of eight years). In the middle peasant, Volga and Ural Federal District (index at seven years), the study said. Housing affordability CITY Price 1 sq.m Price, $ average s / n, rub. Price "kopeck piece," 40 sq. m Number of years Moscow 148 000 5318 3870 0 5 923 800.00 p. 12.8 St. Petersburg 82 200 2951 2761 8 3 287 640.00 p. 9.9 Moscow region. 65 300 2345 2550 2 2612 520.00 p. Volgograd 8.5 43 800 1573 1782 3 1 751 880.00 p. 8.2 Rostov-on-Don 48 500 1741 2032 4 1 940 000.00 p. Samara 8.0 47 000 1687 2014 6 1 879 400.00 p. Kazan 7.8 41 800 1499 1871 5 1 670 320.00 p. 7.4 Nizhny Novgorod 46 500 1670 2104 5 1 860 120.00 p. Ufa 7.4 45 700 1642 2150 9 1 829 640.00 p. Yekaterinburg 7.1 55 300 1985 2609 7 2 211 600.00 p. Chelyabinsk 7.1 41 900 1505 1997 0 1 676 120.00 p. Novosibirsk 7.0 46 900 1685 2237 3 1 877 560.00 p. Omsk 7.0 35 700 1282 1874 1 1 427 920.00 p. 6.3 Source: Alliance De Luxe «I would like to draw attention to the regional authorities in Russia Omsk, - says CEO of Vesco Group and initiator of the federal network of Alliance De Luxe Vyacheslav Shiryaev. - Relatively cheap housing at a good level of average salary demonstrates the ability of the municipality to effectively manage the social and economic processes in the city. " So, experienced athletes are beginning to diverge. And what will the competition - find they fall.
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