Renewal of the mortgage market will not provoke the growth of prices for apartments under the influence of the general optimistic macroeconomic background of the Russian mortgage market perked up noticeably urban housing that predicted by the Analytical Center "Indicators of the real estate market" at the beginning of this year. The volume and number of loans compared to the same period in 2009 increased according to experts at least twice. Refinancing of loans for small and medium-sized banks-partners HMLA increased competition in the market, which led to a variety of conditions and some mitigation bank proposals. Other commercial banks, by contrast, scaling down mortgage programs. The consequence of this in perspective, if the state support the mortgage will not be so powerful, can be a shortage of bank credit products. Moreover, even if the amount of the mortgage in the near future will increase, it does not push prices up, although this idea in recent years are all used. The reasons for this seemingly paradox portal www.irn said in the article "Mortgages in the new environment will keep prices down." The main thing is that the mortgage was adequate, but not unrestrained, as in the U.S., with its volume of loans to sub-prime. Uneven Gradual recovery of the market of housing loans on mortgage programs began in the second half of last year. The recognition that the bottom of the crisis passed, the dissemination of information on powerful state support of the market in the face of AHML, as well as the incipient rise in property prices have pushed the population to increase the activity. This led to the progressive realization of the pent-up demand for housing purchase with borrowed funds. As a result, the mortgage market has entered 2010 with positive trends. According to the Central Bank of Russian Federation, for I quarter of this year the country was granted more than 40 thousand mortgage loans amounting to almost 49 billion rubles. Compared to the same period in 2009, the volume and number of loans, according to statistics of the Central Bank, increased by two times. Without reducing the rate, mortgage lending has continued to evolve and in the II quarter of 2010. According to some market players, the share of loans in June, compared with January, increased in different banks in two to five times. "The number of applications for mortgage loans for the purchase of housing under construction and finished in our bank during the six months increased by over 150% - said Dmitry Shapochkin, vice president of development of mortgage lending company" Bank ZhilFinans. " - Increase the number of calls is caused by positive trends in the economy (and, consequently, the restoration of effective demand) on the one hand, and a few banks, actually providing loans to the population, on the other. " However, the recovery is mainly a secondary market. "This is the number of transactions on the mortgage from the beginning of the year is growing exponentially - says Elena Ponomareva, Director General of" Fosborn Home. " - This is due to the fact that banks are gradually soften lending terms, lower interest rates and the size requirements for a down payment. On the primary market is the burgeoning not observed. Banks are extremely cautious revive pools of accredited developers, and the conditions of lending programs are not new buildings are very attractive to borrowers because rates that are significantly higher than in the secondary market. " According to Yulia Geras'kina, Director of the newly Est-a-tet, the number of loans since the beginning of this year increased by 10%, in addition to the primary market, as opposed to secondary, mortgages offer only a few banks. Among the leaders of the mortgage on a primary expert calls Sberbank, VTB 24, Gazprombank, IBC Bank "Revival", Nordea Bank. The risk of banks in lending to newly promoted, because they depend not only on the solvency of the borrower, but also on the reliability of the developer. This affects the conditions under which banks grant mortgage: compared to the secondary market, the rates for housing under construction prior to registration of property rights above 2-4%, and initial fee? approximately 10%. Rocking of the primary banks prefer to work on the program of mortgage lending in the primary market with the most reliable builders. The latter, in turn, attract more banks to the partnership to provide customers "range" programs. For example, late last year, SC "Pioneer" has signed an agreement with the Moscow Credit Bank for the implementation of apartments in residential complex "Lazarevskoe" to the following conditions. Loan term - 6 months to 15 years, the loan amount - from 1 million Rs. (Or equivalent currency) to 30 million but not more than 70% of property value. Minimum down payment - 30%. Interest rates in foreign currency: from 11% to 17% per annum in rubles - 15-21% prior to the registration of property rights, and after 12-18%. Fee for credit is 1.5% of the loan amount at a time (but not exceeding 100 thousand rubles). In mid-April GC "Pioneer" has signed an agreement with Sberbank of Russia. Maximum loan amount - 80% of the value of the property, the term of the loan - up to 30 years. Interest Rates prior to the registration of ownership from 13.3% to 16.25% in rubles, and from 10.55% to 14% in foreign currency. After registration: 11.95% -14.75% in rubles, and 8.8% -12.1% in foreign currency. "The program of mortgage lending RC" Lazarevskoe "was launched in December 2009, but the first real transactions involving mortgages held two months later, a number of applications our customers are under consideration for banks - said Irina Romanova, Head of Marketing and PR SC" Pioneer ". - Since the beginning of this year, the number of transactions with borrowed bank funds is not greater than 4%, although our object is close to being finalized. Before the crisis, on the same site share of mortgage transactions reached 30%. Today, the majority of transactions is a lump-sum payment, or small installments. This indicates that buyers are still afraid of taking the mortgage. Although a positive trend is definitely there. " In the banking pool of the Criminal Code "Domostroitel" are Gazprombank, Sberbank and VTB 24. Under a special program "Jubilee mortgage" Gazprombank offers a fixed interest rate in rubles, both during construction and after the registration of ownership of 13% per annum. Downpayment - 20%, loan term - 25 years. "The largest credit period offered by the bank VTB 24 - 50 years, which can significantly reduce the monthly payment even at higher interest rates, from 16.1% in the construction phase and from 13.6% after the registration of property rights to the apartment," explains Olga Guseva , chief marketing officer of the Criminal Code "Domostroitel." "Sberbank is actually returned to pre-crisis conditions of lending to individuals: resumed lending housing under construction and set aside a third-party security, reduced package of required documents, to the timing decision. The only limitation is the presence of two guarantors, but this requirement is always present at the Savings Bank ", - says Vitali Osminin, Chief Marketing and Advertising" YIT Muscovy. " By the way, the Savings Bank has recently increased competitiveness by eliminating any loan fees. This program is part of the campaign to abolish the Commission for the issuance of ruble-denominated loans is, for example, and in the bank "Delta Credit." The main criteria for the beginning of this year, the total reduction of rates in the secondary and primary markets for mortgage loans amounted to 0.5-1%. "It is not quite as great as it might seem, based on the reduction of refinancing and the interest rates on loans AHML", - stressed Vitaly Osminin. Mortgage Brokers also say that, to date, you should not have illusions about banking programs and reduced rates. "We must bear in mind that each item attractive mortgage programs, such as a small down payment, or a long term loan, affects the value of the interest rate towards its increase. To date, the mortgage market the most profitable balance between offering banks and the average potential borrower can assume the following conditions: the amount of down payment 30%, a 15-year rate of 9% in dollars, or 11.5% in rubles ", - says Elena Ponomareva . Do not forget that not rate on the loan and monthly payments is the main criterion for access to mortgages, as analysts' Indicators of the real estate market, "wrote even before the crisis in the article" The main criterion for access to mortgages. " The term of the loan amount and down payment - these are the two criteria, which, along with lending rate play an important role in determining the amount that the buyer will have to pay monthly to the bank. We have an average credit period of 15-20 years, more borrowers are not morally ready to decide, says Ponomarev. However, taking credit for a long time, and paying a monthly sum of all possible, the buyer should think about what level of welfare may be increased, and then loan it to repay early. State support for shelter solutions - the priority national project in Russia, so government support in the form of HMLA applies to a segment of economy-class housing. Until recently, the agency was engaged in a secondary market for funding, but over time the program began to emerge and for new buildings. "To mitigate the effects of crisis on the primary housing market and reduce the supply deficit at the end of 2009 we launched the program" Stimulus ", which provides interim measures for the implementation of housing in the completed construction projects - says Anna Lyubimtseva, head of analysis and research AHML. - Also, in the first quarter of 2010, the Agency has developed a special loan product "New" (within the framework of Vnesheconombank). Under its terms, the regional partners of the Agency shall grant mortgages for the purchase of newly constructed housing at a rate below 11%. In this case there are additional deductions on the interest rate for certain population groups (young families, recipients of maternity capital), as well as for people planning to buy a flat economy class. " The maximum loan to Moscow and St Petersburg - 8 million rubles. And for other regions - 4 million rubles. Loans are available to purchase flats in houses built no earlier than 2007. Apartments can be bought and ready, and built houses, provided that ownership of the acquired dwelling will be processed before the end of 2010. The program takes into account the cost of 1 sq.m. housing, and if it does not exceed the standards specified agency, the interest rate on the loan is reduced by 0.5%. For example, in Moscow, so expect a lower percentage will have to find housing no more than 73 800 p. per sq. m. As partners HMLA attracted mostly small and medium-sized banks (asset size by occupying the place below 200th in the bank rating). Anna Lyubimtseva believes that systematic price pressure on the mortgage market in the first quarter of this year from HMLA justified. "Partners HMLA almost doubled their market share. Their share in the total number of issued loans in the I quarter has grown by 15%. At the same time, the first 50 banks by assets actually lost 9% of the market. Anticipation of growth in the issuance of medium and small banks due to their more active than large banks, review pricing of its mortgage programs in the direction of lower rates. Thus, a foundation for the improvement of credit conditions in the major banks with cheaper funding remains, and you can expect deterioration in the II quarter of price competition ", - said the expert. Among market participants can be traced to the ambiguous attitude of AHML. Partner banks talk about it as a key support to the mortgage market, brokers see the Agency's active lobbyist to increase demand for mortgages and reduced rates on the secondary market, the commercial banks to the activities of HMLA more cautious. Some of them believe that it prevents the formation of a healthy competitive market. "The role of HMLA development mortgage is very high. It was originally formed to create a market where it was at that time was not yet. To date, the area of mortgage lending (in any case, the secondary market) are not only formed a developed market, it shows good recovery rate after a year of crisis. However, exclusive access to public finance provides an opportunity to reduce their HMLA rates below a reasonable limit. It can not afford the commercial banks, and in these circumstances, many of them simply refuse to development of the mortgage - explains Dinara Yunusov, vice president of business development DeltaCredit. - We believe a much more appropriate to use public money on direct loans, and subsidies for the active population. " Interest rates on loans and affordable housing market experts do not think that will happen in the near future a significant reduction in rates. According to various estimates, it will be no more than 0.5-1.5%. "To reduce the interest rate is necessary, first of all, a number of market factors and conditions. This is, first of all, the internal market of long-term resource supply. Necessary in the future to exclude a high degree of dependence on Western loans, the mortgage market to develop marketable securities. In the meantime, do not. Today's rate cut is concerned, above all, the federal program of mortgage lending standards ruble AHML and until the full extent does not reflect the market reality - explains Igor Zhigunov, deputy chairman of LTD "City Mortgage Bank." - Now the base rate for the federal program is really one of the lowest, which is very beneficial for the consumer, but the question of reduction of interest rates the market in general need to be addressed comprehensively, creating a system of mortgages based on market principles. " The HMLA expected in the second quarter of this year, sharpening price competition among banks, which resulted in rates will amount to 13,1-13,3% in rubles, and 10,5-10,9% in foreign currency. The number of mortgage loans in Russia will be around 60-70 thousand for a total of 70-85 billion rubles. This is almost two times more than the results of the first quarter. The gradual improvement of the mortgage will promote its availability, thereby increasing the demand for this tool for solving the housing problem. However, according to experts, "Indicators of the real estate market," At the moment it does not lead to an increase in housing prices. In the article "Mortgage does not affect the availability of housing," said that, statistically, better mortgage terms to coincide with periods of market growth: rising prices, excitement, deficit, buying a race, a short term exposure of apartments. Now the market is more stable and static than in the pre-crisis years. In addition, the share of mortgage transactions in the real estate market is no more than 15-20% of the total, so a very large impact on the market it should not have. Another question that credit availability will help to wash away the quality of proposals from the market, which has been observed before the crisis. And that, ultimately, may lead to shortages, which will automatically cause an increase in prices. This scenario is very possible, if there will be no permanent increase in construction. Thus, only under conditions of saturation of the market square meters of mortgage can be a mechanism that makes housing more affordable, and does not increase prices. If there is shortage of housing, such a mechanism does not work.
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