A leap year mortgage

The growth rate of mortgage lending this year will inevitably decline. While borrowers have no reason to expect easing and lower interest rates. Market participants exchanged information, forecasts and fears about the future of the mortgage at the "round table", hosted by the Association of Banks of the Northwest. The theme of the meeting organizers outlined as follows: "The results of the retail banking and mortgage lending in 2007 - early 2008: that done, what to do, what to expect and what to fight." Statistics for St. Petersburg, North-West Federal District and Russia presented the City Mortgage Bank (see table) - the figures are based on data from Rosstat, the Russian Central Bank and S & P. According to these data, the share of transactions in the secondary housing market, involving mortgage loans while increasing each year nearly doubled in 2005 - 4 percent in 2006 - about 8 percent in 2007 - 15 percent. The share of mortgages to GDP also increased by several times: in 2005 - 0.2 percent in 2006 - 0.8 per cent in 2007 - 1.5 percent. Although mortgage rates Hazardous becomes almost the only possible way to buy a home for many Russians, the bankers say very skeptical about the possibility of its further growth. In mid-March in the Council of the Federation held a meeting at which representatives of the Bank of Russia expressed their concern: the rate of increase of housing loans are too high, it can lead to the formation of large portfolios of low-quality loans. "In this and in 2009 the stock market is not much better. Lenders are increasingly turning to financing in the country, however, and while this condition only getting worse: in these days the Bank of Russia raises refinancing rate. You can raise funds and securities through, but it does at least create rating agencies, which would assessed their attractiveness, "- said Vladimir Dzhikovich, president of the Association of Banks of the Northwest. Appreciation or rollback Building price forecasts for 2008, most of the real estate market called 25, a maximum of 30 per cent increase in price "of the secondary." It seems that the reality will override the boldest assumptions of realtors and builders. During the first two months of this year according to statistics from the prices have already risen by more than 9 percent. A particularly popular in some categories - and even more. "It is quite possible, and 50 per cent increase in 2008", - says Pavel Stepan, chairman of the Mortgage Association of Realtors St. Petersburg and Leningrad region. Despite the fact that prices are rising, working in St. Petersburg mortgage lenders is unbroken. The flow of the borrowers are not significantly reduced even raise rates on loans and other loans, the tightening of issuance. Bankers say this is normal: for 2006-2007, so the banks have liberalized their programs that today's borrowers perceive the changes as soon rolled back to their old positions. "In the New Year period we did not observe a seasonal slowdown in demand in December are slow to take out loans to complete chores before the holidays, in January and the flow of the borrowers do have doubled, and in February, everyone wanted to" approve "before the presidential election, but now fear the rumors of denominations and again in a hurry "- says Tatiana Khobotova, head of mortgages in St. Petersburg branch of the bank" VTB 24 ". Lenders are more or less steadily began to talk about that until the end of this year, borrowers not wait to mitigate credit conditions. "Interest rates on mortgages will rise at least until December", - says Igor Zhigunov, head of the working group on the mortgage ABSZ. By the way, today in the annual percentage variation (in different currencies) - from 6 to 19 percent (in the surrounding area - up to 21 per cent), the average loan amount - about $ 90 000. A growing proportion of debt in dollars (although the last couple of months, borrowers have become more interested and dollar loans - due to the steady depreciation of the "green"). Profession - the debtor Lenders believe that it is time to clearly segment the program in view of the target consumer: suggestions for young families, students, VIP-customers (home loans of large amounts), etc. Brokers say that the market is already emerging professional borrowers who use the loans as income. In "Real estate and loans to" give an example: recently in "Nick" has addressed the borrower already has 16 credits (total monthly payment was about 1 million rubles) - for the seventeenth. "Mortgage lending is becoming an instrument of investment. It would be desirable for banks to have developed a special approach to such borrowers, "- said Dmitry Zakharov, chief executive officer. The bankers will work with a large number of brokers (today through intermediaries for the mortgage loan borrower comes out of every three). "Enemies of the mortgage," which must be fought, the lenders referred to in the first place of incompetent or unscrupulous market players. "Sami brokers and bankers are often not distinguished professionalism. Still a lot of dense financial borrowers. Lending has become of such magnitude that it is time to organize the educational program at the local level, to conduct seminars in municipalities, to scatter the mailboxes of something such as "memo borrower", - says Igor Zhigunov. According to him, lenders must be more open to cooperate with evaluators: the last price of the object is often overstated at the request of the borrower.