The leading mortgage broker in Russia "Fosborn Home" calculated the index Fosborn - weighted average of the best offers on the mortgage - the January 2008 result - the weighted average mortgage rates increased. They have not yet reached the level of November 2007, but in comparison with December, when it registered a decline, have increased in absolute terms by 0.06 per cent in U.S. dollars and 0.16 per cent - in rubles (details in Moscow). Index Fosborn made in the Moscow region, 9.96 percent in U.S. dollars and 11.48 percent - in rubles. In Fig. 1. Dynamics Index Fosborn in January 2008 (Moscow and Moscow region), as expected at the end of 2007, January was marked by fairly large-scale adjustment of mortgage programs, and changes have affected all areas of mortgage: the primary and secondary market lending suburban real estate and mortgage lending . This happened because the banks knew - in the near future expect to end the liquidity crisis and stabilize financial markets is not necessary. Banks are obliged not only to seek resources for the continuation of the lending programs of the population, but also to protect themselves from potential losses. Thus, the rates increased following credit institutions: VTB-24, City Mortgage Bank (GiB), Russian Mortgage Bank, Uralsib, the Moscow Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), RosEvroBank and Bank of Moscow (several programs). The average rate increase was 1 percent. Recall that the index Fosborn for several months, from August to November 2007, showed growth rates that was explained in the first place, a general increase in mortgage rates due to liquidity crisis. However, in December index showed lower values than in November. This was not due to lower bank interest rates - they have remained at the previous month, but due to the redistribution of demand. The fact is that the weights in the calculation of the index are the percentage of clients' Fosborn Home, "which used the company's proposal, or otherwise shaping the demand for mortgages. By the end of last year, the number of lending programs with borrowers pay a gray and (or) the borrowers who want to take a loan without a down payment, the market fell sharply. At the same time, banks began to treat people with "money" that followed the savings in anticipation of falling mortgage rates and house prices. But the opposite happened: rates began to rise, housing prices went up too. The picture appeals to the "Home Fosborn" showed that people began to take more credit for up to 10 years, and the proportion of borrowers on the other categories - for more than 10 years - slightly decreased. Loans for short terms and with a large down payment, as we know, are issued at lower rates than for long periods and with meager initial payment (or without). Consequently, in December, the index change was due to redistribution of the demand for mortgages, due to reduced market share of sub-prime loans. In January 2008, the distribution pattern of demand is about the same as in December 2007: preferences of a large group of consumers inclined towards less risky programs with a substantial down payment and loan term to 10 years. However, it is worth noting that in January of this phenomenon was less pronounced. The reason for this could serve as a long New Year holidays, and the fact that much of the pent-up demand was realized at the end of last year. In Fig. 2. The distribution of borrowers on terms of credit in January 2008 (the number of years), as reflected in Figure 2, the most popular program among borrowers are still mortgage programs with the terms of lending to 10-15 years. Decreased compared to December 2007, the percentage of borrowers with loans for a period of 5 years, gradually equalized share of borrowers, loans for a term 5-10 years and 15-20 years - up to 20 years in the Moscow region is credited about 90 percent of all borrowers. Thus, this statistic confirms the known fact that the typical Russian borrower tries, in contrast to most U.S. borrowers as quickly as possible to pay its debt to the bank. Therefore, in particular, the repetition of the American mortgage market scenario, when people were given high-risk sub-prime loans in Russia in the near future is unlikely. At the same time, increased bank rates. To a greater extent changes have affected the lending of new buildings, suburban real estate and mortgage lending - the best rates on these programs, most of them have increased. But to talk only about the rate increase is not true. For example, the best bet in the foreign currency at the direction of the most popular mortgage - in U.S. dollars on the secondary market for a period of 10-15 years - remained at the level of December 2007. There is still a big part of the contract is in the secondary real estate market (95.4 percent) and only 4.6 percent of contracts accounted for the primary market. In U.S. dollars in January, 2008 in Moscow was reached about 88 percent of all contracts on mortgage lending, including loans secured by real estate available, 10.9 per cent fall in lending in Russian rubles, 1.1 percent - in Swiss francs. Thus, despite the predictions of Western analysts of the possible in a short time the growth rate of the dollar against other currencies, in the Moscow region the share of dollar-denominated debt remains very high. Thus, by far the most popular program among borrowers continues to be a credit program in United States dollars on the secondary market for a period of 10-15 years. Index Fosborn: regions. January 2008 in the regions, as well as in Moscow, there was a similar situation: credit program corrected, the best bet in more or less unchanged (Figure 3-6). As a result of January 2008 recorded a growth index Fosborn weighted averages of best betting deals in all regions (except St. Petersburg), compared with values in December 2007 So, in the Nizhny Novgorod region in absolute terms there was a growth index by 0.19 pp . on foreign currency loans by 0.05 percentage points and in rubles, in the Sverdlovsk region - by 0.19 percentage points and 0.03 percentage points in the Novosibirsk region - by 0.20 percentage points and by 0.06 percentage points Little stands against this backdrop of St. Petersburg and Leningrad region, where, in spite of changes have taken place in January in bank programs, the average rate on mortgages in foreign currency remained unchanged at 9.96 percent and totaled. For credits in rubles in the Northern Capital has prevailed for the overall regional trend, in connection with this growth in absolute terms, the index was fixed at 0.07 percentage points It is known that in regions dominated by borrowing in Russian Rubles: St. Petersburg and Leningrad region the share of mortgage loans in rubles is 55 per cent of all such loans. In Nizhny Novgorod, Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk regions share of ruble mortgage is at a level of 85-95 percent. Figure 3. Dynamics Index Fosborn in January 2008 (Saint-Petersburg and Leningrad region) Figure 4. Dynamics Index Fosborn in January 2008 (Nizhny Novgorod region) Figure 5. Dynamics Index Fosborn in January 2008 (Sverdlovsk region) Figure 6. Dynamics Index Fosborn in January 2008 (Novosibirsk region)
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