Mortgage banks in the population attack failed. A year ago, lenders enthusiastically talked about the prospects of issuing mortgage loans and attract skilled professionals for any money. But by early 2008 enthusiasm has dried up. While global financial markets are reeling because of the American mortgage crisis, we have planned their own mortgage crisis. When in the late summer of last year, Russian banks have started to experience problems with refinancing their mortgage portfolios, the experts did not think it will affect the larger organization. Some of the banks even rushed to seize the moment and started buying mortgage portfolios less successful competitors - in particular, declared so "VTB 24", Bank of Moscow, International Moscow Bank (now - "UniCredit"). Those who have money to buy other people's loans were not available, were in no hurry to sell and tried to stay in the mortgage by any means - including by reducing the amount of shorter forms of lending. The hope was that the instability in Western financial markets will not last long, and the loss of long-term customer base will have to make up for years. "Least of all should borrow from the person to whom money is most needed. Gotthold Ephraim Lessing "But economists were wrong. "A couple months of instability 'has turned into six months, then everything started to wait for reports of large international banks in 2007 the New Year, too, has not brought relief. Western banks have shown billions in losses and predicted a further loss. The former head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA, Alan Greenspan admitted that such a crisis the U.S. economy is not known for all time after the Second World War. Russian banks, this means that low-cost funds in foreign markets will not be. Despite the fact that the Fed since September 6 times reduced the discount rate (as a whole by 3 percentage points), and Russian banks cost of money has remained high. According to the March survey Goldman Sachs, even state-owned banks are now able to raise funds only at a rate of Libor +3%, while private Russian banks is equal to Libor +7% (10%). In the domestic market, too few alternatives. The market of corporate bonds there, but virtually no place - suspended or transferred in the fall, says CEO of the National Rating Agency Viktor Chetverikov. Issuers interested placed at a high rate (even for state-owned companies is not less than 12%) in the absence of guaranteed compensation, and because of that, annual offer comes 90-100% of the investors (maturity greater than 80-90%), 3-5 - year bonds have become an annual in the second half of 2007, "As a result, back to square one, where to start: it is easier to take out a bank loan" - complains Chetverikov. Understanding Mortgage winter, the mortgage market is doomed to stagnation first, to the bankers did not come suddenly. But in November last year, they started talking about the need for a domestic source of long-term loans, meaning primarily pension funds, the Stabilization Fund and development institutions. What's interesting about the long-term money always told mostly from the state banks. Andrei Kazmin, while still president of the Savings Bank, stated this a year or two years ago. And find support from their colleagues and VTB Bank of Moscow - Andrey Kostin and Andrei Borodin. Already this year at the April convention of the Association of Russian Banks (ARB) Chairman of the Agricultural Bank Yuri Trushin said about the need to establish in Russia the "resource area to feed the banking system" to create an alternative to external borrowing. What would happen if such site is not created, already told the president "VTB 24" Mikhail Zadornov. 117% increase was mortgage loans in 2007 According to the former minister of finance, of approximately 400 banks operating in the mortgage market in mid-2007, de facto, nearly half (primarily regional) turned the program. Zadornov know what they said, his bank along with the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending and the company "GPB-Mortgage" is the main purchaser of mortgages from regional banks. This source of resources for small banks can seriously run out first. The Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending volume of refinancing for the entire 2008 is limited to 64.6 billion rubles., Of which nearly a quarter will go to new loans for military personnel, young families and the happy owners of the parent capital. And the "GPB-Mortgage" 70% of the total assets have refinanced at their own regional companies. "We buy out monthly portfolios about 5-6 billion rubles., Mostly in regional banks - said Zadornov. - And we'll turn off this line in the first place. " Although, according to him, this business twice more productive than the issue itself. Indeed, according to Deputy Director of Mortgage Lending Binbanka Vyacheslav Panteleyev, against the need for money became more and more banks sell their mortgage portfolios. As a result, rate of commission paid by the buyer to the seller-bank mortgages declined. "Some buyers just refuse to pay commission when buying mortgages, and are willing to pay only a fee for subsequent support loans - says Panteleyev. - In the last sentence of the sale of mortgage interest income less than three months covered the size of the proposed commission, so we decided not to sell the mortgages, the more that the urgent need to attract additional financing bank does not feel. " In the second place itself will be collapsed housing loans. If the situation does not improve for several months, Michael has promised to refocus resources Zadornov "VTB 24" with long-term mortgage-granting consumer loans for the period 9-12 months: "This is a necessary measure. We do not change the strategy and are not afraid of losing market share because they believe that other players will do the same. " Other banks in the meantime already cut lending long natural persons. 8% drop in loans for housing "VTB 24" from the crowd look more nice. Thus, specialized "GPB-Mortgage" and the City Mortgage Bank reduced the issuance of new loans by 17 and 35%, "Uralsib" - a 29% group Transkreditbank - 41%, BIN - 69%, and "Uniastrum" - on of 95%. Sovereign's eye in the Bank of Russia recognize the problem. But the situation does not dramatize. At the same congress, the ARB chairman of the Central Bank Sergei Ignatyev, shared with his colleagues are not too optimistic prediction for 2008: slowing credit growth nonfinancial sector (businesses and individuals) from 53% in 2007 to 40 or even 35%. He added that he sees nothing wrong in this. In this situation, first of all affected private borrowers. According to first deputy chairman Gennady Melikyan, since the beginning, banks prefer to lend to businesses rather than individuals (for two months, portfolio growth was respectively 6.1 and 4.1%). "I think that the mortgage banks are becoming unprofitable. Firstly, they do lack long-term money. In addition, when high inflation rate mortgage banks do not provide the necessary revenue. Now the cost of mortgages almost caught up with the increase in consumer prices and the banks, at best, go to zero. So many have suspended their mortgage programs, "- said he SM. However, with the regulator by the banks should not wait. According to Melikyan, ensuring banks' long-term money is not the responsibility of the Central Bank. Melikyan himself believes that there could help development institutions, which would give the banks lending money to specific industries. But this issue is already beyond the competence of the Bank of Russia. Because forecasts and Russian bankers are still disappointing. If the crisis in western markets will continue for another six months, but authorities did not find alternative sources of long funds, banks (including government) will begin to shift to shorter types of loans. Of course, not all. According to President of investment group "East Commerce" Askhat Sagdiyev, the business model of Russian commercial banks was imprisoned mainly on the securitization of these assets and the sale of western banks and funds. Because they are suffering. Another story - the Savings Bank, which provides mortgage loans at the expense of public resources: the de jure is short money, but in fact long since about 80-90% of private deposits prolonged. He will continue to mortgage lending. Other banks in the meantime can relax and earn money for express loans. Bankers estimate the domestic market to refinance $ 100 billion - a quarter of the revenue of the Russian budget. But these sums are not spent, even state to state corporations. At the end of the tunnel, of course, banks are in something disingenuous. Despite the decline in the rate of lending to buying a home, do not believe that they give up such a business. This is - a pledge of future prosperity. Increased inflation will continue in the worst case a year or two, and the mortgage is issued at least 20 years. Is it bad to get an annual return of 11-12% when inflation is 6%? Especially that time (that is, three years for the inflation forecast of the government and central bank) and the rate on short loan will significantly lower. This means that profit from rapid credit will be the same as that of the mortgage held by a few years ago. But the money (ie, shareholders' money) for most banks do not. Consequently, they can increase their portfolio at the most 11-12% of those receipts from repayment of issued loans. Plus receipts for deposits. But not at 117%, as it was last year. If the State wishes to maintain a competitive mortgage market, it will find a way. In the end, the national project "Affordable Housing", the curator who was elected president, it is largely based on the availability of mortgage credit. But private banks can not follow in the wake of the Savings Bank, lowering interest rates despite rising inflation. Although in terms of home prices decline in lending makes sense. Now up to 20% of dwellings sold under the mortgage. Reduction programs, banks will reduce demand and perhaps even a decrease in housing prices. But it will be a repetition of the American scenario, from which the well was not anybody.
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