From all of the crisis became frightened. Already rumors of mass layoffs, uzhimaniyah budgets, folding projects and other horrors. Those who are now "thirty" is very reminiscent of the events of a decade ago - the 1998 default. But the Internet Journal of Real Estate Metrinfo. is not going to intimidate a respectable audience. On the contrary - we want to understand what we, in fact, wait, first of all - of the mortgage. As the crisis impact on participants in this market - in particular - are mortgage borrowers. Indeed, the banking sector - one of the main sufferers now. We will try to figure out what the financial crisis threatens a) mortgage banks, and b) potential customers mortgages, and c) to intermediaries - brokers and realtors. This will help us in the recent second annual conference "Prospects of mortgages in Russia", organized by company "Onsonference" as well as experts from the magazine. General trends noted by the participants of this conference are as follows. The crisis will affect the growth rate of the mortgage market - growth has slowed, although it has not stopped. But the mortgage in Russia grew, mainly due to the regions. Also, by increasing the amount of credits due to a rise in price per square meter. That is, borrowers much more is not, in general, mortgage statistics, apparently in need of serious correction, because "over the heads" of borrowers no one believed, thought only in terms of credits, - said vice-president of the Association of Regional Banks, Oleg Ivanov. Another very important trend - the mortgage market participants expect the fall in housing prices, what is already recognized in the open. Incidentally, this brings to mind - take out a loan, or wait until prices reach the bottom. Well, let's see what changes await each of the players. Implications for banks to banks, as the director of the analytical department of management of securitization and syndication VTB Gennady Suvorov, were closed Western financial markets, where many credit and refinanced mortgage portfolios. Simply put - the money on a mortgage taken from anywhere. As a result, large banks (mostly - under the wing of the state) having access to money, will buy up mortgage pools from smaller, but these little - go with the mortgage market. Former leaders of the mortgage, which is firmly held in place rankings in the top twenty, had already begun to blame for 80 th place. So, as noted by Head of Mortgage Lending City Mortgage Bank Olga Sadovskaya will market consolidation and concentration of the major participants. And do not even exclude the fight for the client. Implications for future borrowers They should prepare for further growth in mortgage rates. In the next six months, they can grow by 1.5%. A rise in interest rates leads to a decrease in the amounts of loans. The average loan amount can thus be reduced by 15 percent. About the stricter requirements does not mean just lazy. What is important? Priority will be borrowers with a large "white" salary, which they can verify a certificate in Form 2-PIT. To enhance checks. For more on this you can read in our yesterday's article "The main reasons for failure in the mortgage loan." Clients should not rely on particular loan program buildings. Some experts argue that the banks will even refuse to cooperate with developers and with them mortgage programs. Finally, roll up the program with no down payment. The threat hung over Lombard programs where credits are given under the existing housing. This is likely due to the fact that "a pawn" slipped suspicious borrowers. All this will lead to the choice of the borrower becomes more limited. Implications for Brokers other hand, seems to begin a holiday in the street brokers - mortgage brokers. Today the share of mortgage transactions conducted with the participation of brokers is 20%. Experts predict that soon a third of mortgage deals will be with the help of brokers. Brokers are already helping customers refuseniks get a mortgage, and because the number of failures likely to increase, with brokers of the increase. Comment on the situation in the mortgage market, we also asked the experts of the magazine. Artem Kostyushin, CEO, "SBS-Mortgage": With a further deterioration of the situation, these loans, as the acquisition of land with houses being built in the first place will be eliminated. Least the major banks will be forced to suspend the issuance of mortgage loans, but customers get mortgages earlier, it is not affected. The average loan in Moscow, in a segment of affordable housing, now about $ 300,000 for 15 years at 11% in dollars and 13% in rubles, but in a few months, the average rate increase. In my opinion, the demand for apartments are generally not declined, the demand for mortgage products may have slightly decreased. But the number of failures due to stricter requirements in some banks has increased. Olga Guseva, head of marketing of the Group companies' Domostroitel ": The mortgage market is now expected another" clean ". Will those banks that have strong positions and resources for development in this direction. At the same time worry about bank customers who have left the market, it is not necessary. The main holders of their mortgage portfolios will be other financial institutions, but it is standard practice for the mortgage market in general. No significant difference borrowers of these banks do not feel - the payments they are likely to be transfer through your bank. As far as credit conditions, the criteria that govern banks in assessing the borrower will be somewhat tougher. Mortgages will be available to a greater extent those borrowers who can openly show their income, assets, good credit history. However, among our customers the failure rate has not recently fallen, this is due to an adjusted offer GC "Domostroitel" and our partner banks and their interest in further development of the mortgage on the primary direction of the real estate market. Maxim Katalov, director ANNT "Open Company": Today, the average loan options are as follows: 15% down payment, term of 25 years, the loan amount 6-7 million. Apartment in Moscow costs an average of 7-8 million rubles. At a rate of 12% and loan term of 25 years, the monthly payment will be about 50-60 thousand rubles a month. Such payment allowed to make a family with an income of not less than 110 000. Others - "leave" in the region - the migration of Muscovites there is very felt. I was silent about the newcomers. Why so long would the Soviets have happened - visitors to the city of course not. But pitying about it, thank God, less and less. Rates rise, but not much and not for long. Six months or a year, things will go back to yesterday's state. Unfortunately the program is rolled up without a down payment, to even more unfortunately did not go right from the start of the program with so-called interceptor loans. In the future, I believe, will increase the number of loan programs in new purchases. There will also be developed and standardized, entered other than annuity, payments. I am sure that will increase the proportion krossproduktov: Requests market integration services to banks and real estate agents, look at your auto market. The number of borrowers is reduced, but demand is still high (with current prices in the mortgage have already come and the people who previously could not do without it). By the well-known problem with the approval and added anxiety themselves borrowers. They are concerned about the two fears: a) whether it is dangerous to take the credit: will I be able to pay, then there will not raise rates, and b) whether it is dangerous to buy an apartment on credit: what if prices will fall and have to pay for a product that is not worth so much .... I think the market will be quite a delicate balance, transaction volume is low, prices will rise. Then the market will go to a new round of price increases, God willing, without hysteria, in the normal standard mode by 2-2.5% per month. Natalya Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank: If the bank and stop issuing new loans, it has nothing to do with loans. Even in circumstances when the bank sells the loan to another bank porftel, he retains the ability to collect revenue on credits already. If we talk about the measures taken by the Government to support the banks, they will help to overcome the liquidity crisis, but will not help to maintain high growth rates that were observed in the banking sector until recently. We should therefore expect that the pace of credit growth will slow down, that is, they are more expensive and less accessible. Marina Galaktionov, director of development partnerships, "LOAN MAX": In September of the program of our partner banks changed 3 times in the direction of price increase. Bet now grown so that some programs are in demand. Of course, the government is taking action and doing everything possible "to the problem of the West" could not greatly affect the situation. However, HMLA raise the refinancing rate of ruble loans and as a consequence, banks raise their "mortgage Dollars." Mortgage loan in the currency choice is still great, but the average rate also increased. Some of our partners closed the program with floating rates, for fear of "Western instability." Many potential borrowers do not come in the mortgage market. People who are not being confident in the stability of their incomes to understand all the risk of non-payment on the loan and do not submit documents for the loan. In addition, in an inflationary environment few have the opportunity to accumulate a down payment of more than 20% of the acquired property, namely the magnitude of the initial contribution in many banks depend on the terms of the loan. And employers are still not ready to confirm the earnings of employees, so they are forced to describe their income in "declarative manner," gaining a significantly worse rate of the loan, and even more stringent requirements for initial payment. Number of failures on the part of banks' customers has not changed, because we know the requirements of lenders organizations. But the real money on the issue has become much smaller. Our country has been repeatedly coming out of various crises. The experience we already have. Only with public involvement and support can protect the domestic mortgage market from the negative effects of foreign crisis. It is hoped that the Russian market will not repeat the mistakes of America. Andrew Larkin, Vice-Chairman of the Board, Chief Financial Officer Mortgage Bank: Many banks in the ruble rate mortgages increased by 1-2%, I think that as soon as the level of 14% per annum on rubles will mean. I think this movement will continue for the next six months. Then you need to look at the international capital markets as well as to the long ruble Funding in Russia have access to the minimum number of banks, namely state-owned banks. And it's not quite a long funding, but rather, simply the presence of large balances in banks' liabilities. Since the margin in the mortgage product is quite low - I'm sure that the change in market share and market players will develop very rapidly, increasing in the direction of state-owned banks and foreign players, and almost cutting in medium and small Russian banks. Measures taken by the Government should help to rasshivaniya liquidity crisis. Since a large number of banks had a position in the securities, which only recently fell. This will help to raise, in part, current cost, but say it's over - I would not. But, of course, such injections of liquidity and the maintenance of such measures on the market, yet was not. If the market for Western capital will not be any attempts to open, then in 2009 the mortgage landscape will change drastically: the market will only state-owned banks and representatives of Western players. Angela Dubrovskaya, head of mortgage lending, "City-XXI Century": Now, many banks are developing new loan products, it is associated with an increase in interest rates. And the new conditions of credit, I think it would be more stringent. The number of borrowers has not decreased. We now have even more calls than last month. The only thing - some banks are now suspended lending activities. Difficulties will be enough. For example, right now many banks will not be very reluctant to cooperate with developers, but before going active. In general answer to this question is quite difficult - the market is frozen in anticipation. Summary Of all must learn, as our mortgage is still small (only 2% of GDP, when in the U.S. - 80%). To grow it will be all the same, since the potential it has to be a huge demand. Yes it is and so, no matter what. And growth - among the highest in the world. So bad experience - also in a sense good. It is possible that the current crisis still give impetus to development of internal secondary mortgage market, in future, our banks did not go for the money to the West and to refinance the house.
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