Revive the mortgage in the near future is unlikely. Late last week the government approved another package of measures to support mortgage lending in Russia. Besides those already provided by the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML) 60 billion rubles. for the capital increase and repurchase mortgages from the banks will provide the agency in 2009, a number of tranches totaling 200 billion rubles. In addition, approved by the volume of lending to private banks by the Bank of Russia on the security of mortgage bonds issued under the guarantees of AHML, amounting to 500 billion rubles. Thus, the total additional funds that the Bank of Russia and HMLA jointly prepared to provide special credit institutions, if they were to issue mortgage loans can be more than half of the annual volume of the Russian mortgage market. Against this backdrop, some observers have expressed doubts about the need for such a massive stuffing money into the mortgage system in the country, saying it could lead Russia to a situation faced by the United States. And, according to the analytical center www.irn, theoretically, such a danger really is. However, in order to make it a reality requires a number of circumstances that are unlikely to be realized in full. Based on data from the Bank of Russia, the number of transactions involving mortgages, committed since 1 October 2007 to October 1, 2008 in Russia as a whole, was 25% less than a year earlier. At the same time a complete collapse of the Russian mortgage market emerged only with the onset of autumn. Prior to that, banks are more or less, but credited the population. At the same time, the mortgage was one of the main tools that supported the growth in property prices. In the end, "collapse" of the mortgage market has spurred already started falling home prices. It should be noted that an important role in the "collapse" of the mortgage market has played just AHML, whose main task is just the same promotion and development of the mortgage market in Russia. HMLA sharply tightened credit conditions. However, the agency had good reason for that. The fact that the share of overdue debt has become out of control growth. And just the same thanks to tighter requirements HMLA share of "delay" was cut in a short time. But within a few months, private banks have been one on one with consumers. And, of course, they did not have enough funds to continue lending to households. The fact that the general scheme of mortgages in Russia and had no idea that banks have a lot of money. This means providing them with HMLA by buying mortgages. And as soon as HMLA tightened requirements for mortgages, the banks were just "in their" people and lending stopped. In addition, this process will add a circumstance, the HMLA banal out of money sufficient to support the growth of the Russian mortgage market at the same level. According to the Bank of Russia, the volume of mortgage loans annually has doubled. And this was all the bases. Although the share capital of HMLA until recently has not exceeded 10 billion rubles. necessary for the redemption of mortgage funds, the Agency drew the expense of bonds, both domestic and foreign markets. But with the onset of the crisis the market of foreign loans, in fact, ceased to exist. Suffice it to say that the bond posted by HMLA initially at 8% per annum, is now traded on the yield of about 22% per annum, this means that their price has fallen by almost a factor of 2. And if HMLA now have similar bonds in the market, less than about 20% per annum, it would could not do that. Raise funds for such a percentage would mean even more to tighten the terms on your mortgage. If credit is given now by about 17% per annum, then he would have been just above 20%. And their own funds to buy even those credits that reflect the new tightening of standards, the HMLA after a while it would have been enough. As a result, the formal, government, allocating 800 billion rubles. to maintain the Russian mortgage market, saves him from imminent collapse. Against this background, experts from a number of comments have appeared in the sense that government measures to support the Russian mortgage market may drive the Russian real estate market in an even worse position than he is now. The result of government action, according to these experts say could be a situation in which were two major mortgage agent of the U.S. government of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In fact, at first glance, several HMLA proposals may raise issues. Thus, the vaunted guarantees ceteris paribus, in general is very risky. The fact that the agency offers banks a guarantee HMLA issue bonds. It would seem, who are now going to buy these bonds, because the financial market and real estate markets are most affected by the crisis. However, this is a AHML is the answer. And therein lies the same time as the main risk. HMLA offers banks issued their securities exchanged for a six-month repo loans of the Bank of Russia. To begin with, the Bank of Russia still does not issue such loans. But given that the Russian government decided to allocate the Bank of Russia 500 billion rubles. to maintain the mortgage, we can assume that the repo at 6 months of next year, likely to appear. Indeed, representatives of HMLA said after the decision to increase its authorized capital by 60 billion rubles. That they market under their prokredituyut warranty just 500 billion rubles. it is through the six-month repo. But even if we assume that the Bank of Russia will offer the market a six-month loans, repurchase agreements, bankers and, indeed, start to work on the scheme proposed by AHML, the money for long-term consumer loans, banks will receive only a few months. If the market is stable, then, in fact, such a scheme does not threaten. This is what Alexander said Semenyaka in an interview published in the newspaper "Kommersant" in August this year, when he said that short of money in Russia a lot, and, if necessary, long-term loans can be "sew" in short, by the appointment of an annual offer. This mechanism, according to him, has been used when placing the second issue of AHML mortgage bond issue. However, the high risk in these securities is still there. After all, people will be given credit for several years, and the money for this purpose at the Bank of Russia received only six months. Typically, such a scheme operates as a constant perekreditovyvanie. In this case perekreditovyvat private banks will be the same Bank of Russia. And if the "last search" in the case of foreign banks perekreditovyvaniem took several years until the market is not "covered himself," in the current situation, money can be completed much faster. After all the money from the Bank of Russia is not endless, and once they run out to the bankers who were going to have to require mortgage borrowers to prepay debt. The vast majority of ordinary borrowers this means, of course, will not appear. And the market may be a massive default, exactly what happened in the U.S.. And all things being equal the money set aside for the Bank of Russia loans to banks for transactions, repo at 6 months, may, indeed, quickly ended. Suffice it to say that from 1 October 2007 to October 1, 2008 in Russia in general banks have been issued about 1.5 trillion rubles. mortgage loans. In addition, traditionally, the total amount of guarantees issued shall not exceed the authorized share capital of more than 5 times. At the same statutory fund HMLA is now about 69.1 billion rubles. Thus, the amount pledged guarantees (500 billion rubles.) Exceeds the amount of the authorized fund is not in 5, and more than 7 times. As a result, one might get the impression that the government will now aggressively lend to people, property prices will go up again, and when the money runs out (and enough for them, if we start from the last years, not more than six months), the market collapses already so much that can pull himself and the rest of the economy. It would seem to be afraid, and so these processes are underway in the country. However, experts fear the notorious things being equal it is true. The fact is that now different sectors of the Russian economy is experiencing a general shortage of funds, which until recently were heavily drawn upon by foreign loans. And if we assume that means the economy will begin to pump again, but only through a narrow neck construction and mortgages, when the effective demand for housing will once again be exhausted (in the case of a new rally in prices, it will not wait long), will fall more "harder" than now. The current crisis in the economy can only be overcome by a set of independent tools, not one of them at the same time can cause excessive demand because of the crisis need to go slowly so as not to fall into a more "deep hole." And estimates of the analytical center www.irn, this criterion is consistent HMLA new tools for the development of the mortgage market. The fact that AHML, according to the head of the agency Alexander Semenyaka, which he did in his interview to RIA "News" is not going to improve in the foreseeable future demands on the mortgage. Meanwhile, the high demand for mortgages fell for the first half of 2007, when the accumulation period of the initial contribution to the Russian average was about 2 years and monthly payments on average in Russia was more than the average monthly wage is 1.8 times . But then the minimum rate for loans at large banks was at 10% per annum in rubles, the maximum loan term up to 40 years, and the minimum down payment of 10%. Since then, prices have increased approximately 1.5-fold, and the amount of down payment in big banks are not below 30%, the maximum credit - no more than 30 years, and the rate on the loan is the smallest in AHML, but there it is about 17%. As a result, the period of accumulation of the average in Russia grew to 7.5 years and the monthly payment in Russia on average three times higher than average wages. Not surprisingly, the mortgage market in Russia, in fact, ceased to exist. The people are not willing to borrow on such terms. And even in the unlikely scenario where the dollar against the ruble will remain at current levels, and wages in 2009 will grow, as in 2008, 30%, so that purchasing power has returned to previous levels, prices for housing should be 60% below current levels. But in this volume fall into Russia as a whole can hardly count. So prices can fall only in Moscow, and even then, only some very over-priced items. The expected rate of decline in housing prices in Russia as a whole by various experts estimated at 20% -30%. Also, expect that the dollar remains at current levels, too, hardly. Value of the dollar, according to some estimates, could increase to 35 rubles. It should be noted that the increasing consumer demand contributes significantly to reducing the size requirements for a down payment and an increase in loan period. "Indicators of the real estate market," wrote about this in his article "The main criterion for access to mortgages." It was so stimulated AHML mortgage market in 2004-2006. And in 2007 alone, we are talking about lowering interest rates. But even if we reduce the size of HMLA down payment of 15%, the return of effective demand for pre-crisis levels, housing prices will still be below current levels by 50%. But this scenario is hardly possible. Expect that will improve HMLA credit conditions, hardly worth it. According to Alexander Semenyaka, improve credit conditions may be only in case the Bank of Russia lowers refinancing rate. This is what is observed in recent years. However, over the past few months, Bank of Russia was again raise the refinancing rate and the process is unlikely in the near future to stop. In addition, according to Alexander Semenyaka, cheap mortgage is only in the case of expensive housing, and when the housing is cheaper, mortgages can only go up. This is not surprising. After all, mortgage loan granted bail, and when the mortgage is cheaper, the risk of non-repayment, the bank rises sharply, this increase adequately bankers tightened credit conditions of the population. So hope to improve the conditions of mortgage loans for the next 1-1.5 years is not worth. In addition, because of the crisis may be a situation where the average monthly salary in Russia as a whole will not grow. Then return the effective demand for pre-crisis levels can only fall by 80%. But that, in general, a fantastic scenario. Thus, expect that the tools proposed by HMLA market, it will explode under the current conjuncture, according to the analytical center www.irn, is hardly logical. Due to additional funds being brought to market, AHML will probably encourage banks to additional marketing moves that could revive the market, but no more.
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