C without a mortgage bubble could not tell

The main source of growth in the mortgage market in 2010-2012, the Government suggests not so much a market recovery as coming at him with Vnesheconombank's investment of 250 billion rubles. and use of government guarantees HMLA 2009-2012, to 202 billion rubles .- It follows from the mortgage market development strategy to 2030 approved by the government on July 19. The calculations are based on the concept of strategy, long-term development of Russia until 2020 and generally do not involve any price declines in real estate, no large public investment in it after 2015. At the disposal of "b" was a "long-term strategy of residential mortgage lending until 2030" approved by the Bureau of Government meeting on 19 July (see "Kommersant" on 20 July). We recall the document, according to "b", developed by the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML), aims to improve access to 2030 mortgage from the current 17% of households to 23% of the Russian Federation in 2012 and 60% by 2030. The strategy describes the main tasks of the state in the transformation of the mortgage market, how to implement them and the main risks of the chosen strategy. Strategy be implemented in three phases: 2010-2012, 2013-2020 and the years after 2021. At first, rehabilitation, post-crisis recovery stage, assume the market and the issuance in 2010, 240 thousand mortgage loans in 2011 - 320 thousand in 2012 - when the amount of 490 thousand government-sponsored mortgage through AHML in 2010 to 30 thousand loans in 2012 - 56 thousand credits. The second phase involves the 2013 to 2015 the growth of availability of mortgages up to 30% of households in the Russian Federation, issuing mortgages at 740 thousand loans per year and the growth of the mortgage to GDP to 7.2%. Then the expected and significant impact on the mortgage market of private pension funds and investment funds. By 2020, the transition to the third stage of the strategy is expected to "stabilization" of the mortgage market with the issuance of 860-870 thousand loans per year, falling mortgage interest rates on loans at the rate of inflation plus 2.5% in 2015 (to 2012 are assumed to rates at the level of the index potrebtsen plus 3.3% in 2020 - the CPI plus 2% in 2030 - the CPI plus 1%). Any particular macroeconomic model, suggesting such a significant increase in mortgages in the Russian Federation (in the 2011-2012 market growth according to the plan is higher than in 2007), based on the strategy does not lie. When computing the first phase of the strategy refers to April, an updated forecast of the Ministry of Economy of socio-economic development of Russia up to 2012, the second stage uses the evaluation of the Concept of long-term socio-economic development (RIC-2020), for the third stage there is no macro. Recall, the RIC was taken in October 2008 without taking into account the collapse of major markets - the strategy states that "after 2012, the crisis will be overcome, the economy will return to the previous trajectory of development." Part of the assessment is arbitrary - for example, in 2013-2020, the average increase in the PPI, inherent in the strategy amounts to 4% per year, this figure is used as a basis for settlement. "Without a model to predict such processes meaningless - it's guesswork. But the model is not so simple - it must assume several scenarios", - thinks Alexander Morozov from HSBC. "I do not think that the purpose of the document's authors was to construct a forecast. Their goal - set goals. Accurate forecasting can be carried out only in the vicinity of one or two years, and the direction of development - estimated maximum of seven years. In the long run you have to pull the main process such as increased quality of the middle class "- says Julia Tseplyaeva strategy evaluation of BNP Paribas. In this strategy recognizes the "contradiction between improving housing affordability for the population and increase the risks of mortgage lending in the face of declining home prices." Standard inhibition of the mortgage market in the world is going to change the pricing trends in the real estate market - obviously, the strategy does not imply that the 2030 cyclical crises can reduce the price of real estate, HMLA and development institutions are expected to be at the expense of mortgage securitization (which "has significant limitations, "admits the document) is absolutely effective to stabilize the market. How exactly this happens is indicated only for 2010-2012, and this scenario is realistic. The strategy states that at this stage the market will VEB 250 billion rubles. investments in bonds with pension coverage (50 billion rubles .- own funds, to 100 billion rubles .- means pension funds managed by VEB) bonds and HMLA (60 bn .- pension funds, 40 billion rubles .- line of credit from VEB AHML National Welfare Fund). To this is added 80 billion rubles. funds under the state guarantees of the HMLA (36 bn .- unused guarantees in 2009, 44 billion rubles warranty .- 2010). However, in 2011-2012 HMLA expects another 56 billion rubles. and 66 billion rubles. new guarantees. Thus, in 2010-2012, the market can expect the release to it of about 450 billion rubles .- This is obviously really be able to warm up even in weak conditions. But for permanent long-term mortgage rates subsidize the White House to go, according to the document does not intend to: Stuffing the money, reduces the mortgage rates, must cease by 2015.